His lead is still solid - and he's pulling in 49 percent of the vote. The highest margin a Democrat has ever polled in the district in recent times was 38 percent in 1990. In the last election, the Democrat got 35 percent. In some ways, a Hoffman victory would, in my view, have been worse for the GOP. But this result, if it holds, suggests that the insurgency there was more of a national/Beck/Palin media reality than an actual shift. If anything, this reveals a big shift to the Dems, perhaps in reaction to the disarray and division on the right.

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