Joost Hilterman in the NY Review of Books thinks 2010 could be a very bad year:
[J]ust as Odierno will be pulling out his first combat brigades, starting in March, Iraq will be entering into a period of fractious wrangling over the formation of a new government. If Iraqi national forces fail to impose their control, an absence of political leadership could thus coincide with a collapse in security; if politicians and their allied militias resort to violence, the state, including its intelligence apparatus so critical for maintaining internal stability, could fracture along political, ethnic, and sectarian lines.
It's coming: the final proof that the surge failed. (And yes, the Iraqi parliament still hasn't come up with an election law because of sectarian divisions).
(Hat tip: Ricks)