Gerald Seib thinks that unemployment could be the political story of 2010:
IHS forecasts that a third of the nation’s metropolitan areas will have jobless rates in double digits in the fourth quarter of next year, and that 16 metro areas will have jobless rates exceeding 15%. The pain figures to be worst in California, which will have nine metro areas with jobless rates exceeding 15%. Michigan will have three, and Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Indiana one each.
Things figure to be better by time President Barack Obama runs for re-election, but far from perfect: “By the end of 2012, the jobless rate will still be above historic norms, but it will finally slip below 8% in more than half of metro areas,” IHS says.