Reality Check

by Patrick Appel

I'm not sure how much this chart tells us (just because one doesn't approve of Obama's performance on health care doesn't mean they don't support reform) but it's not a great sign for supporters of the current health care bill:

Intrade has seen the chance of healthcare reform by December fall precipitously this week, which probably says more about shifted time-lines than the chances that something, however pared down, will make it through eventually.

Update. A reader writes:

The intrade contract requires a public option to be in the bill that's signed by the end of the year for it to execute.

That does change the calculus.