Mebane Updates His Polling Analysis

And the likelihood of fraud increases:

The initially released polling station data show evidence of significantdistortions in the vote counts not only for Karroubi and Rezaei butalso for Ahmadinejad. No significant distortions are apparent forMousavi's vote counts. A key to interpreting these results isunderstanding why the vote counts for Karroubi and Rezaei are typicallyso small. Is it (a) inherently low levels of support, (b) votersstrategically abandoning the candidates, or (c) fraudulent counts? Ifthere is good reason to believe either (a) or (b), then (c) is lesslikely. The significant result for Ahmadinejad is not direct proof thatAhmadinejad's votes are fraudulent, but fraud is certainly a reasonableinference in light of reports that "Iran's Guardian Council hasadmitted that the number of votes collected in 50 cities surpass thenumber of those eligible to cast ballot in those areas" (Press TV,2009).

My italics. The raw data is here. Have at it.