And the likelihood of fraud increases:
The initially released polling station data show evidence of signi?cant distortions in the vote counts not only for Karroubi and Rezaei but also for Ahmadinejad. No signi?cant distortions are apparent for Mousavi's vote counts. A key to interpreting these results is understanding why the vote counts for Karroubi and Rezaei are typically so small. Is it (a) inherently low levels of support, (b) voters strategically abandoning the candidates, or (c) fraudulent counts? If there is good reason to believe either (a) or (b), then (c) is less likely. The signi?cant result for Ahmadinejad is not direct proof that Ahmadinejad's votes are fraudulent, but fraud is certainly a reasonable inference in light of reports that "Iran's Guardian Council has admitted that the number of votes collected in 50 cities surpass the number of those eligible to cast ballot in those areas" (Press TV, 2009).
My italics. The raw data is here. Have at it.
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