I agree that the nature of the regime matters. But I think it matters far less than the outcome of Iran's nuclear program, regardless of who is in charge. An Iranian bomb is a scary prospect for several reasons not directly related to Israel. One is the regional nuclear arms race it would precipitate, with Sunni rivals of Iran, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, likely to start up their own programs in response, something that creates a whole new set of enormous proliferation and detonation risks.
Then there's the question of how secure a full-fledged Iranian nuclear weapons program would be. Even if a 'moderate' regime in Tehran weren't interested in nuking Tel Aviv, and simply enjoyed the bomb's prestige and deterrent factors, who's to say that Iran's production and storage facilities would be secure enough to prevent material from falling into the hands of rogue Islamist zealots with different ideas? (Pakistan is enough to worry about on that front for now, I'd say.)
But what exactly can we do to stop the Iranians? Bombing them would undoubtedly redouble their efforts.
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2006-2011 archives for The Daily Dish, featuring Andrew Sullivan