IRANVOTEMajid:Getty

This was always a possibility and it raises more questions about the volatility of a country in the grips of unusually boisterous street campaigning and protests. Stratfor summarizes where we are:

Iran’s state-run Press TV is saying that only 10 million of 24 million votes, or around 42 percent of the vote, have been counted. At the same time, they are also claiming that 69 percent of the vote has been counted. Obviously the numbers are not adding up, and the agencies themselves appear to be in chaos.

Prior to the announcement of the results, Mousavi held a press conference in which he said he was the winner of the election. The opposition camp is greatly concerned about fraud, and STRATFOR has been told that Mousavi has vowed to resist any fraud, even if it entails taking to the streets. This means there is considerable risk of unrest should Ahmadinejad emerge as the winner. But so far there is no evidence that the government is mobilizing security forces to deal with any such eventuality.

(Photo: An Iranian woman shows her ink stained finger after casting her vote at a polling station in downtown Tehran on June 12, 2009 in Tehran, Iran. By Majid/Getty.)

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