Terror Free Tomorrow and The New America foundation have a new poll (pdf) out on the Iranian election. It strikes me that Ahmadinejad would not be conducting such a Palinesque campaign if he were that confident. Lisa Margonelli focuses on the economic numbers:
70 percent [of Iranians] favor investment by the US, and 69 percent say that the most significant way the US could improve relations would be to create a free trade treaty between the two countries.
The Iranian people want to become a normal nation. How we can leverage that against their regime is the challenge. I suspect freezing all nuclear activity would backfire - but calling the mullahs' bluff and having real and constant inspections might have a chance.