He has stopped predicting financial Armageddon:
Roubini says he doesn’t see much in the way of “glimmers of hope” other economists have noted. Unemployment, capital investment, and exports are all worsening, and while there are a few signs of stability in housing, it’s not much. Overall, he figures, the odds of a prolonged “L-shaped” depression have fallen to less than 20%, from about 30%, thanks largely to the efforts of this administration and, to some extent, the last. He expects global contraction of 2% this year, and expansion of about 0.5% next year, “so small it’s going to feel like a recession still.”
Still, he adds: “I don’t worry as much as six months ago about a near depression.” From the man who has been called Dr. Doom or, as he prefers, Dr. Realistic that’s practically cheery.
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