Nate Silver looks at how making the market a benchmark of Obama's success could play out:

There is risk here for Obama -- it is now much harder to make the case that the market is undervalued and volatility remains high by historical standards; a significant retrenchment is possible, as is a continuation of the bull market conditions of the past 60 days or so. But given the choice between having a leading indicator like the stock market be regarded as his economic benchmark or a lagging indicator like employment (where the numbers are still getting worse), Obama would take the stock market every time.

But both are silly. We may not be able to judge the first calls by this administration on the banking crisis for a couple of years. And even then, the noise in the system of economic growth is deafening; and the government's role - though much more important in a crisis - is nonetheless limited.

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