Effect Measure looks at where we are. So does The Pump Handle:

The news is better than many of us feared it would be but that doesn’t mean that governments and the WHO overreacted. If not for the dramatic measures that Mexico and other governments imposed, our situation right now would probably be worse. How much worse? Maybe only a little worse (a few hundred more people feeling miserable for a week, a few dozen more hospital emergency rooms overstretched), but possibly a whole lot worse. The flu virus that’s circulating in the US right now appears to cause relatively mild illness, but if it circulated through a wider population over a longer time period, it would mutate further and could become far more virulent.