Nate Silver doesn't think New York is likely to pass its marriage equality bill:

Democrats may take some solace in the fact that, when gay marriage bills were approved by legislatures in states like Maine and Vermont, they tended to pass with slightly more votes than anticipated. Still, based on the most recently available information, I would guess that their odds of securing 32 votes are not better than about one in three.

If you are a New Yorker, write your representatives, especially the undecided ones Silver lists.

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