Justin Fox makes a prediction:
We are in fact seeing the beginning of the end of this recession in the U.S. But the recovery will be fitful and problematic, and we won't have to wait seven years for the next downturn.
Michael Mandel is also tentatively calling the bottom:
with stock prices up 20% since the low, I’m ready to take another shot at calling the bottom. The reasons for muted optimism: better policy, small signs of economic revival, and a sense that we already have absorbed a punch of historic proportions. The downside: stubbornly high unemployment.
Tyler Cowen throws some cold water:
I do not believe the rosy scenario, as I think there are still other "shoes to drop," most of all internationally. I also think we will see a double-dip or triple-dip recession, as the Fed must eventually withdraw some of new money from the system. Good news is then, in fact, simply a sign that some bad news is on the way, sooner or later.
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