A few economic writers look ahead. David Altig:
When I look ahead, I envision the U.S. economy over the next several years in terms of a simultaneous process of recovery and reformation: Recovery in the sense that the actual contraction of GDP will end, but reformation in the sense of structural transformation in financial markets, consumer behavior, and perhaps an adjustment of the global imbalances that are arguably at the root of much of the financial instability that has characterized the past decade.
What’s widely perceived as dithering at the Treasury over the resolution of doubts about the solvency of the US banking system may have more to do with preparations for regulatory overhaul. A far-reaching redesign of the national financial system is expected to begin in Congress in a few weeks and could be completed fairly swiftly...Congressional re-regulation of the financial system could be as effective as antitrust measures in breaking up institutions heretofore deemed “too big to fail.” Separating the deposit base from the underwriting and trading activities of financial firms would go a long way towards enabling government and competitive forces to sort out the problem of these “toxic assets.”
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