Ruffini looks at where Obama is outperforming Kerry. Darker blue indicates how much better Obama is doing, not whether Obama will win the state:
Obama is likely to do better than John Kerry in every single state, even Kentucky and West Virginia that shellacked him so in the primaries. This is simply the national atmospherics and the political environment. "The map" does not dictate his ability to win or lose. It only dictates what order he wins those states in. We sometimes focus on "the map" to the detriment of everything else. But in reality, any topline outcome is possible given the right environment. And if you doubt it, just remember that a guy with the middle name of Hussein could pick off one or two Deep South states on his way to the White House.