Nate Silver:

It's highly likely that some sort of bill will pass the Congress. What kind of bill, I don't know. But the Dow is liable to act as something of a thermostat. The lower the Dow goes, affecting people's 401Ks, the more banks that fail, the less unpopular the bailout becomes, and the more of those swing district congressmen will flip over to support the package.

Unless, of course, we come to realize that letting these banks fail under their rotten loans is not the end of the world. If the world doesn't end, wouldn't the bailout lose more support?

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