by Chris Bodenner
Nate Silver ran 10,000 simulated elections and determined that Michigan -- Romney's home state -- is the top "tipping-point state" for the fall.
Update (7/20): Sean at 538 emails to note: "The polls are updated constantly which affects the Tipping Point chart, and Michigan has dipped to 22% and 3rd, behind Ohio (41%) and Colorado (23%)." He also points to his skepticism about running mates helping in their home states.
I myself have always been skeptical of the ability of Romney to carry MI. He won the state by just 9 points in the Jan. primary -- before the national economic downturn, which is hitting states like MI harder than others. The conventional wisdom says that Romney's major strength is economic issues, but I fail to see how a multimillionaire CEO of a private equity firm will help with struggling Rust Belt voters. If anything, he'd be a liability for McCain (with Gramm's "nation of whiners" the icing on the cake). Huckabee said it best back in January: "He is the boss that fired you, not the guy you work with."