I wouldn't be complacent, but one Republican strategist believes that civil marriage equality will survive this fall's vote in California:
Putting Proposition 8 on a high-turnout November presidential election ballot is dumb. Trying to pass it once same-sex marriages have become a legal, daily occurrence throughout the state is dumber. And now, if Californians vote it down, conservatives can't blame judicial tyranny for imposing same-sex marriage on the unhappy masses.
If marriage equality survives in the most populous state, the debate is all but over.