By Patrick Appel
Ezra on where the campaign stands:

...campaigns aren't particularly responsive to campaigning. They're about partisan loyalties and demographics (how soon we forget the primaries, where Obama's vote totals were best predicted by the state's racial composition), by the economy and sense of the foreign scene. I still think Obama has a pretty significant edge, but it's largely because I think those forces will eventually weigh in heavily on his side, not because he's so much better a campaigner.

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