Tyler Cowen on holding marginal opinions:

If no one agrees with you, you should be quite worried.  If only a small number of people agree with you, you still should be quite worried.  I don't think it's a numbers game, but I think whatever view you end up with, it doesn't have to be a majority point of view, that reasons have weight, not just adding up whoever agrees with you.  But you still ought to say at the end of the day, look all those other people are against me, maybe I think I'm right probability 57 to 43, but on any truly controversial question among intelligent people, you should never think it's 95 to 5 in your favor.

Tell that to the president.

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