Mike Dorning crunches the numbers:

If Obama could inspire just 10 percent more Democratic voters under 30 to go to the polls than did four years ago, that alone could be enough to switch Iowa and New Mexico from red to blue, the analysis suggests.

Just a 10 percent increase in turnout among blacks would make up more than 40 percent of Bush's 2004 victory margin in Ohio and more than 20 percent of the Republicans' 2004 victory margin in Florida.

Turnout increases of 10 percent of both young voters and African Americans could virtually eliminate the Republicans' 2004 victory margin in Ohio and go a long way to closing the gap in Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Virginia and--a bit more of a stretch--possibly North Carolina.

We want to hear what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor or write to letters@theatlantic.com.