Robert Rapier writes:

There is no question that global oil production will peak. We have country after country in which this has already taken place. The key questions are "When?" and "What are the impacts?" I believe the answer to the timing is that it is soon. Even the most optimistic predictions mean that my children will have to deal with it. The more pessimistic suggest that it is upon us now. Personally, I think >90% probability of a global peak within 5 years - which is why I spend so much time pondering the impacts.

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