About as good as Obama's in 2002:
The fact remains: he was right about the surge. Not necessarily about what to do next, or what our long-term goals in Iraq should be, but about the need to reduce violence and reach a minimum level of stability before we could expect any political progress. He was not just lucky-right; he was right because he understood the military requirements, and how a measure of military success might give the Iraqi government room to maneuver.
Andrew Sprung has some illuminating testimony from Gates' confirmation. I hope I've acknowledged, with due caution, the fact that McCain was right and I was wrong around a year ago. I don't think the skeptics should be blamed for not giving the Bush administration the benefit of the doubt. But I do think they're wrong to deny the success since. Where that leaves us, of course, is a different question. And one in which Obama - unfairly perhaps - has the advantage.
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