Survey USA's data shows both Clinton and Obama beating McCain on electoral votes, but they win in different ways. Matt doesn't buy it:
Each of these polls has a sample size of 600, so the margin of error will come into play. What's more, there are 100 separate polls being aggregate here, so the odds are that several of these are just bad samples. On top of that you have all the usual problems with early polling...while I think this method is clever, I don't really see it as methodologically sound -- Clinton's not going to lose Washington, Obama's not going to lose New Jersey, and what happens in Michigan will have more to do with whether or not McCain runs demagogic attacks on the Democrats' global warming plans than on who the Democrats nominate.
I agree with Matt. But the map does show the benefit of the Pennsylvania primary. The more time Obama spends there - down in the nitty-gritty - the better for him. Even against Rendell, he has a chance to do well.