Dale Carpenter listened to the State Supreme Court arguments on marriage equality:
The most likely result is that the gay-marriage litigants will lose 4-3 or possibly 5-2 ... This prediction assumes both that (1) the dominant tone and substance of the comments from an individual justice actually reflect his or her views about the case and that (2) the justice will not change his or her mind post-argument.
I'm not a constitutional expert in California, so I will not weigh in on the jurisprudence here. But I will say such a result would not crush me. The great achievement of the marriage movement has been to establish that marriage equality is a legitimate and constructive social reform, to establish it securely in one state and to tell our stories across America. The speed of change has been phenomenal - far faster than many of us ever dreamed of when we embarked on this two decades ago.
And that means that our chance to win democratic and legislative victories is now much, much higher than it has ever been. We have also managed to prevent the worst from happening: a federal constitutional amendment. And so our task now is to keep making the case, keep building and strengthening our own families, keep reaching out to the next generation of more inclusive Americans. Establishing civil unions and domestic partnerships that are the equal of civil marriage is enough work for now. The society needs time to absorb this change, and to let go of its own irrational fears. Using courts to establish a precedent is one thing; using them to force social change prematurely when it is happening at its own pace anyway is foolish.