Gaming Florida

A reality check from Ambers:

HRC won, if you'll recall, 49 to 33. Can Obama exceed 33% of the vote? That's his floor -- and the floor for his expectation. He is almost certain to improve on this number, which would, under certain circumstances, give him the equivalent of a moral and perceptual victory in the state.

What worries Obama managers in Chicago is the timing: if Florida is seen as a real re-do, and if the media portrays it as a wide open contest, a clear Clinton victory would give her a big bounce of momentum right as the primary window closes.