What Recession?

by Reihan

James Hamilton seems to think that the spike in oil prices means the smart money is betting that a recession is not on the way.

Or you could try a line that to me seems a bit more natural: incoming data aren't confirming the initial notion held by many that a recession began in December. If so, it means that the Fed's easing will come to an end within a few months, and that the demand for oil, copper, and most everything else is going to be stronger than many of us had been anticipating as of a few weeks earlier.

Somehow I don't think Nouriel Roubini is buying this line of argument. If Roubini is right, I'm planning on stockpiling enough emergency beef stroganoff to last me through the next two decades.