The Final Iowa Pile-Up


At this point, the polls are close enough and their reliability suspect enough to believe that anyone can win Iowa for the Democrats. Nonetheless, Clinton seems to have recovered from a tailspin, and Edwards seems to be enjoying a late surge. Did Obama peak too soon? He's been dropping ever-so-slightly in the very latest polls and his rivals have been ticking up. In the end, the organization will probably make all the difference.

But at the same time, if it really is a three-way tie with only 1,000 votes or so between them all, how will anyone claim a clear victory? I used to think that if Clinton won Iowa, it would be over. But if she wins by a sliver, the race continues into New Hampshire and beyond. If she wins convincingly, it's another story. If Obama wins, given last minute expectations, he could get a real boost. If Edwards wins, all hell breaks out. It's enough to make anyone, er, excitable.