Ambers sees signs that it's real:
There are two metrics, one of which we don't have available: their hard count of confirmed caucus goers. The other is crowds.
Not only has Edwards been greeted by unusually large crowds for him, he is outdrawing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton head-to-head. In Des Moines Monday, Edwards drew 400 to Hillary Clinton's 200; in Mason City on Saturday night, Edwards drew 600 to Obama's roughly 300.
The campaign tracks undecided caucus goers through nightly rounds of phone banking: the Edwards folks claim they're hearing more about their campaign's unique holiday card than they are about HRC's Des Moines Register endorsement. (Note: HRC and Edwards's universes don't overlap too much, so it's not that surprising.)
Still -- at almost every event in recent days, Edwards has gotten standing ovations. At the end.
I've been to dozens of Edwards events since the beginning of the cycle, and I've seen such enthusiasm for him only a few times.