One wrinkle pointed out by a reader is that when you examine the second-choices of Democrats in Iowa in the NYT/CBS poll, you find that Clinton is significantly behind both Edwards and Obama. Edwards gets 25 percent of the second choice voters; Obama 24 percent; and Clinton only 16 percent. I get the feeling that many Edwards and Obama supporters like each other more than they care for the Clinton machine. In caucuses, that can make a difference. Maybe she'll finish third.

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