An interesting analysis, worth reading in full. The bottom line:

Obama and his Democratic rivals have their work cut out for them in trying to defeat Clinton for the Democratic nomination. The fact that Clinton leads not only among Democrats nationwide but also among every key Democratic subgroup makes targeting one’s campaign efforts a challenge. Obama’s relatively strong appeal to black and young Democrats is somewhat of a double-edged sword, because those groups are usually among the least likely to turn out to vote. But Obama’s ability to inspire people may help him capitalize on his strengths among these groups. His relatively weak support among older Democrats (and older Americans) is somewhat of a liability, because this is one of the groups most likely to vote.

Should Obama survive the Democratic primaries, he may be fairly well positioned to win the presidency, given his relatively high favorable ratings and a political environment that currently advantages the Democratic Party.

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