A Virginia reader dissents:
1) The poll you reference is obviously an outlier. Its findings are neither close to nor compatible with the trend line established by other polls. As a Virginian, I can tell that it's pretty ridiculous to claim anything about this race at this point - the advertising has just ramped up and most people are just now paying attention.
2) Pundits don't choose Senators. Voters do. Before the last state election, polls placed Jerry Kilgore with leads through much of October. Kaine still won. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine have built a powerful movement in Virginia - the Democrats have picked up seats in the last two statewide elections. Allen's ground game and plan haven't been successful since 2000. Jerry Kilgore played the Rove card and couldn't beat Tim Kaine, a classical liberal.
Virginia is NOT a "Red State" as many want to paint it - it's a very divided state where the population centers all vote Democratic. In the past rural votes have been more important, but as Northern Virginia and the Hampton Roads area get larger the importance of rural Virginia wanes. Allen can't win many votes in Northern Virginia because his entire image is tailored for the rural areas. 3) I've lived all over this beautiful Commonwealth and I know people all over the state. When Mark Warner starts campaigning for Jim (which should start real soon now that he's out of the presidential picture) his 70 percent approval rating will change this race.