Lebanon's Future?


Michael Totten has an insightful post:

I spent a total of seven months in Lebanon recently, and I never could quite figure out what prevented the country from flying apart into pieces. It barely held together like unstable chemicals in a nitro glycerin vat. The slightest ripple sent Lebanese scattering from the streets and into their homes. They were far more twitchy than I, in part (I think) because they understood better than I just how precarious their civilized anarchy was. Their country needed several more years of careful nurturing during peace time to fully recover from its status as a carved up failed state.

By bombing all of Lebanon rather than merely the concentrated Hezbollah strongholds, Israel is putting extraordinary pressure on Lebanese society at points of extreme vulnerability. The delicate post-war democratic culture has been brutally replaced, overnight, with a culture of rage and terror and war.

What is happening in the Lebanon is a tragedy for the Lebanese, a horrible  - and terrifying - conundrum for the Israelis, and a disaster for US policy in the wider struggle against Islamic extremism. And, oh yes, it is not, unfortunately, going to bring an end to Hezbollah...

“What will become of us?” is the question on everyone’s mind. No one can know what will happen after Israel lifts its siege and the temporary national unity flies apart into pieces. And it will fly apart into pieces. The only question is how far the pieces will fly and how hard they'll land.

The photograph above from Totten's website is of a Christian mob attacking a car in Beirut because it had a Hezbollah logo. It may be the future of Lebanon - a country just beginning to grope its way toward democracy and normalcy. Totten wants to return as soon as possible. His reporting and analysis is as good as anything in the MSM. Donate to him. He has a tip-jar on the site.