This probably won't help you win Warren Buffett's $1 billion prize for filling out a perfect bracket. But it might help you fill out a less imperfect one.
That's because I know about imperfection. I'm a Georgetown fan. Ever since 2007, when the basketball gods helped the Hoyas reach the Final Four, it's been one upset after another. In 2008, they lost to 10-seed Davidson as a 2-seed. In 2010, they lost to 14-seed Ohio as a 3-seed. In 2011, they lost to 11-seed V.C.U. as a 6-seed. In 2012, they lost to 11-seed North Carolina State as a 3-seed. And in 2013, they lost to 15-seed Florida Gulf Coast as a 2-seed. Overall, they were expected to win 9.7 tournament games based on their seedings. They won two.
Some of this was just bad luck. Davidson and V.C.U. were, in retrospect, juggernauts. And Florida Gulf Coast was plenty impressive the way it turned alley oops into an art form. But Georgetown struggled to even keep these games close. That's more than some unfavorable matchups. That's something unfavorable about them. In other words, something about the way they play must make them vulnerable come March. The same thing that makes teams like Vanderbilt and Wisconsin, who have also been Make-A-Wish foundations for Cinderellas, vulnerable.