Golden Globe TV Awards Matter Less, Are Easier to Predict

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I suppose it's true that when I made my Golden Globes predictions yesterday and only included the film awards, that was a slight against television. I didn't mean it to be. It's just as enjoyable to watch deserving TV professionals get honored for their work as it is for movie stars. Some of the most memorable Globe moments, in fact, have emerged from the TV awards, from Lena Dunham thanking Amy Poehler and Tina Fey for getting her through middle school, to the time Christine Lahti won for Chicago Hope and was in the bathroom, to the time Ving Rhames tried to force his award upon a flummoxed Jack Lemmon. 

There's just less of a sense of import for the TV awards because they don't have the effect on the Emmys that the film awards seem to have (even if it's just a fairy dust/fugazi/McConaughey effect) on the Oscars. Winning a Golden Globe TV award means ... just that.

Still, it's kind of fun picking the Globe TV awards because, even moreso than the film awards, they can be really easy to predict. I realize just by saying that, I'm opening myself up to a hilariously terrible showing on Sunday, but it's true. The Globes love new things more than anything else. Last year saw wins for Girls, Lena Dunham, and Don Cheadle (House of Lies), all after their first seasons. The previous year, all four acting winners (Claire Danes, Kelsey Grammer, Matt LeBlanc, and Laura Dern) plus Best Drama Homeland were all on their first seasons. The previous year, it was Laura Linney, Steve Buscemi, and Boardwalk Empire. You get the idea.

Best Television Series Drama 

Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
The Good Wife
House of Cards
Masters of Sex

So if the New Shows rule plays out, we've got a House of Cards vs. Masters of Sex battle on our hands, and while the latter show got great reviews for Showtime, House of Cards was not only a bigger sensation, but it put Netflix on the map. Don't expect much existential hand-wringing about that from the Hollywood Foreign Press.

Predicted Winner: House of Cards

Best Television Series Comedy

The Big Bang Theory
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Girls
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation

Already I'm tempted to break my own rules. But no matter how much I personally adore Brooklyn Nine-Nine, it feels like the buzz is still with Girls. Glee won this category for its first two headline-grabbing seasons, and I suspect Lena Dunham's show will do the same.

Predicted Winner: Girls

Best Actress in a Television Series Drama

Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Taylor Schilling, Orange Is the New Black
Kerry Washington, Scandal
Robin Wright, House of Cards

For all intents and purposes, Scandal is still operating like a new show on the awards circuit, which means that the only nominee here who's old news is Marguiles. Which makes this category a true toss-up and one of the most interesting/fun contests of the night. Robin Wright has the advantage of representing a Best Drama nominee, but something is telling me this is a Taylor Schilling/Tatiana Maslany contest.

Predicted Winner: Taylor Schilling, Orange Is the New Black

Best Actor in a Television Series Drama 

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Michael Sheen, Masters of Sex
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
James Spader, The Blacklist

The Golden Globes have never loved Breaking Bad as much as the Emmys have, so as weird as it sounds, Bryan Cranston probably has the least chance to win this category. The Globes have a history of awarding the male stars of not-that-popular Showtime series (ask Cheadle, LeBlanc, and David Duchovny for Californication), so don't come crying to me if Liev Schrieber walks off with a statue for Ray Donovan. Still, this feels like the perfect storm of New Show + Movie Star in TV Role for a certain underhanded Congressman. 

Predicted Winner: Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Best Actress in a Television Series Comedy

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation 

Nobody new this year, but I would be surprised if both Girls AND Lena Dunham repeat their wins. With Globes co-host Poehler (and not Tina Fey) nominated, expect some shenanigans during the awards presentation. But when it comes to the ultimate winner, I'd flip a coin between Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Zooey Deschanel.

Predicted Winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Best Actor in a Television Series Comedy

Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Michael J. Fox, The Michael J. Fox Show
Jim Parson, The Big Bang Theory
Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Everybody in this category is a former Globe winner except Samberg, which would make him a very interesting possibility to take home the win. But Brooklyn Nine-Nine is an ensemble series (a wonderful one, at that) and Samberg doesn't stick out as prominently as Fox does. Plus, the industry is utterly in love with Fox, so there's that.

Predicted Winner: Michael J. Fox, The Michael J. Fox Show

Best Supporting Actress, Television

Jacqueline Bisset, Dancing on the Edge
Janet McTeer, The White Queen
Hayden Panettiere, Nashville
Monica Potter, Parenthood
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

The rule in the supporting TV categories is that the award more often than not goes to prestigious, often British performers in TV movies. While a win for Potter or Panettiere would be the most wonderful thing, I don't think it's going to go down that way.

Predicted Winner: Janet McTeer, The White Queen

Best Supporting Actor, Television  

Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Rob Lowe, Behind the Candelabra
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Jon Voight, Ray Donovan
Corey Stoll, House of Cards

I wouldn't be shocked if Jon Voight ended up winning for Ray Donovan, and I wouldn't be sad if Corey Stoll did the same for House of Cards, but I think the only TV movie in a sea of series takes it here.

Predicted Winner: Rob Lowe, Behind the Candelabra

Best Television Miniseries or Movie

American Horror Story: Coven
Behind the Candelabra 
Dancing on the Edge
Top of the Lake
The White Queen

It'd probably be tough to award a miniseries that hasn't finished airing yet, so let's say Coven is out. It might have been out anyway, since an award for Behind the Candelabra is a chance to get Steven Soderbergh on stage. I wouldn't rule out Top of the Lake, either.

Predicted Winner: Behind the Candelabra

Best Actor in a Television Miniseries or Movie 

Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
Idris Elba, Luther
Al Pacino, Phil Spector

It's as academic here as it was at the Emmys.

Predicted Winner: Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra

Best Actress in a Television Miniseries of Movie 

Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor 
Rebecca Ferguson, The White Queen
Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake 
Helen Mirren, Phil Spector

Lange already has her Globe for AHS, and while I would keep an eye out for Helena Bonham-Carter (who gives great awards speech, by the way, so that would be pretty good), I feel like this is where Top of the Lake gets its love. 

Predicted Winner: Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake

This article is from the archive of our partner The Wire.