The Oscar nominations this morning threw us for a loop, shutting out Argo and Zero Dark Thirty directors Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow in the directing category. Though both films were still nominated for Best Picture, it appears that they may not have as likely a chance of taking home the prize as they might have—only three films have won Best Picture without being nominated in the directing category.
So where does the race stand now? It's time for rampant speculation, of course!
Lincoln Takes The Prize
This was a logical theory even without today's surprises. Lincoln has taken the most Golden Globes and BAFTA nominations, and it's an easy choice for Academy members to award: a classic, patriotic story, with a much-loved director at the helm. Andrew O'Heihr at Salon writes that it "is the overwhelming favorite," adding that he "wouldn’t be surprised to see Day-Lewis, Steven Spielberg, writer Tony Kushner, supporting actor Tommy Lee Jones and the film itself sweep the big awards on Oscar night." At Deadspin Tim Grierson and Will Leitch wrote: "It's difficult to see a scenario where Lincoln doesn't romp." You can bet on it: Intrade says it has a 73 percent chance of winning.