You've probably heard about gold. It's been doing pretty well over the past several years. Since November 2008, its price has soared 87%. Over the last decade, its price is up 441%. To put that into perspective, over the same period, the S&P500 stock index is up just 14%. Is it a bubble? Lots of skeptics say so. Anytime an asset's annual return averages above 40% for an extended period, it's hard to see it as anything other than a temporary phenomenon bound to change direction before long. Those kinds of gains aren't sustainable. Just ask tech stocks and houses, right?
Wrong, says Brett Arends at MarketWatch. He charts the gold rally and compares it to the asset price jumps during the tech and housing bubbles. The picture is compelling, and appears to imply that, if there is a gold bubble, and it has a similar trajectory to the other two bubbles, then it will climb much higher -- soon and quickly. Here it is:
He provides some additional commentary on why gold might not have peaked yet. He could be right, but I'm still not entirely convinced that I'm ready to invest in an asset that has already appreciated 441% in the past decade. After all, if this is a gold bubble, it won't necessarily take exactly the same trajectory as other bubbles. And it will also fall, so you better get out at the right time.
Read the full story at MarketWatch.