We're sowing the seeds of the next global banking crisis and the crash could be just a few years away, according to a new paper from international consulting firm Oliver Wyman. Here is The Atlantic's summary to what could be the next worldwide recession.
The one-sentence description of Oliver Wyman's doomsday scenario is: The world is slowly inflating a commodities bubble that could burst just like the housing market in 2008, creating an even more devastating worldwide recession.
THE COMMODITIES BUBBLE
Let's start in 2011. The world is in a three-speed recovery, with Europe at the bottom, the U.S. in the middle, and Asia growing between 6 and 10 percent. If you're an investment bank looking for high returns, where do you look? The fastest gains are in the hottest markets, and the hottest markets are in the developing world. In particular, commodities investments (gold, silver, platinum, rare earth metals, oil) have soaked up lots of excess global money supply and central banks have dropped their interest rates. Commodities-rich economies like Russia, Brazil and the rest of Latin America have been key beneficiaries.
In the U.S. housing bubble, over-valued homes encouraged families to go on a debt-fueled spending spree In the commodities run-up, emerging economies are on their own spending sprees, building up their cities and digging out more valuable metals. But just as the housing bubble was powered by a false faith that home prices would rise forever, it's wrong to believe that commodity prices have no ceiling due to insatiable demand from China, India and other developing countries.