The Economy Doesn't Explain the Entire Midterm Election
Why are Democrats projected to do better than average in the districts hit hardest by the recession?
Of the 25 congressional districts hit hardest by the recession -- measured by unemployment, poverty rates and housing prices -- 16 are represented by Democrats. Twelve are favored to win reelection despite the Republican tide, the latest polls indicate. Just one of the 16 is clearly leaning Republican.
And of the 25 congressional districts that have fared best economically, 14 currently are represented by Democrats. The Democrat is a clear favorite in just five of those races, polls suggest. Five others are likely or leaning Republican; another four are considered competitive.The economy, in short, isn't enough to explain the Republican surge, says political scientist Robert S. Erikson of Columbia University
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