The Wall Street Journal is running a poll that asks where the Dow will be by June. As of this morning, the bulk of the reponses voted for somewhere between 10,000 and 11,000. This is a good bet. As Burton Malkiel has so painstakingly elucidated, the stock market seems to move in a random walk--which is to say that at any moment it is as likely to go up as to go down. And as anyone who has analyzed mutual fund returns can tell you, almost all of the people who think that they are good at predicting stock market movements are deluding themselves--even relatively good active mutual fund managers don't consistently earn their fees. My best guess is that the market includes all currently known public information, and that therefore the most likely outcome is . . . for it to be just about where it is now.
But that doesn't mean we shouldn't speculate wildly! What do y'all think? Up, down, or sideways?