That's the title of Kevin Drum's latest post. Obviously the answer is "no"--it's a long way to 2010. On the other hand, I'm surprised that he describes himself as "laughing off" a pretty effective NRCC fundraising email describing the obvious strategy of bashing the hell out of Democrats about all the money we've spent over the last year.
He goes on:
Comments? Is lefty obsession with the public option going to torpedo Dems in 2010? Or will everyone manage to get energized in time for the midterms? I live in California, where elections are almost all preordained, so it's hard for me to judge. What's it like in the rest of the country?
A few data points:
- Obama has scored some of the lowest Gallup approval ratings of any president at this point in his term
- 44% of Americans told PPP, a Democratic polling outfit, that they'd vote for Bush over Obama. I mean, Obama still won handily, but when George W. Bush is polling 44% against you, you have to worry.
- Pollster.com now has health care reform at 53% against, 38% for.
- Charlie Cook's tracking of the shifts in political races certainly doesn't look good. Here are the results for Congressional races:
- Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat: 7
- Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat: 1
- Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat: 5
- Likely Democrat to Toss Up: 2
- Lean Democrat to Toss Up: 4
- Toss Up to Lean Democrat: 1
- Toss Up to Lean Republican: 1
- Lean Republican to Likely Republican: 1
- Likely Republican to Solid Republican: 1
Out of 23 races, two moved towards Democrats, while 21 moved towards Republicans. I don't want to oversell this point--13 of those are still at least "leaning" Democratic. But the momentum is all going the wrong way. Nancy Pelosi has said she's willing to lose 20 seats if that's what it takes to do health care, but that's easy for her to say--her seat is safe. It's also a little delusional, because at this point, she is almost certain to lose 15-20 seats no matter what.