If the favorables stay above 40%, I think we stand a very good chance of getting a bill before next March. If they go much lower, the procedural hurdles are basically a sideshow. Democrats can tell themselves that if they don't pass a bill, they'll look like fools, and their demoralized base will stay home, and if the numbers are close enough, maybe that's true. But favorables in the 35% range will mean they've got everyone except their base against them. They really can't win an election on that, especially not in the Senate. I don't see them ramming through huge bill on a party line vote when significantly more than half the country hates it.
But who knows? Maybe Obama has another speech up his sleeve.
We want to hear what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor or write to firstname.lastname@example.org.