The overwhelming majority of people who have private insurance are covered by their employers. That will still be true under any of the proposed reforms. So it's worth looking at what happens to premiums in the employer-based market after a given plan takes effect.
If the plan is the Senate plan, then according to the CBO, not much changes. Average premiums might be as much as 3% lower than they otherwise would be. On the other hand, they might not change at all.
That's actually rather surprising. We've been hearing a lot over the last few weeks about the transformative power of the excise tax on high cost plans, which is supposed to really incentivize the kind of delivery services reform that could hold down medical cost inflation. Indeed, the effect is supposed to be so powerful that almost all the revenue estimated from the excise tax actually comes from employers buying cheaper health insurance than they otherwise would and passing those savings onto employees in the form of wages, which the employees then pay taxes on. By 2019, that excise tax is supposed to be generating $34 billion a year for the treasury.
But according to the CBO, while the excise tax will exert downward pressure on large group health insurance premiums, other factors--like the requirement that children be eligible for dependent coverage up to the age of 26--will push them upward. The result is a maximum savings of 3%, a minimum of 0%. The CBO notes that because so many people are affected, even small changes can produce significant revenue.