CBO: The Baucus Bill Bends the Cost Curve Down

As amended, the Baucus bill would expand insurance to 29 million people, reduce the federal deficit by $80 billion between 2010 and 2019, and bend the curve between .25 and .5 percent over the decade after that, where projections get really dicey. From the CBO Director's executive summary:

All told, the proposal would reduce the federal deficit by $12 billion in 2019, CBO and JCT estimate. After that, the added revenues and cost savings are projected to grow more rapidly than the cost of the coverage expansion. Consequently, CBO expects that the proposal, if enacted, would reduce federal budget deficits over the ensuing decade relative to those projected under current law--with a total effect during that decade that is in a broad range between one-quarter percent and one-half percent of GDP.