An end to the recession is unlikely to bring any improvement in hiring in the U.S., a new paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City argues.

The research, made available on the bank's Web site, affirms the widely held view that hiring is unlikely to spike much even if the recession ends, as most believe is imminent, and warns things could be worse than now thought. Persistent levels of high unemployment could also change how the Fed assesses inflation pressures, with important and as yet unsettled implications for monetary policy.

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