Bloomberg thinks so. According to their chart of the day, there's a buy signal in the market that has predicted gains averaging 18% for the last 88 years. That signal is when Dow's last price and was at least 10% higher than its average for the prior 200 days. Here's a chart showing what they mean:

Thumbnail image for bb 10p200d.PNG


How often does this signal work? Bloomberg tells us:

Eighteen of the last 21 times the Dow rallied from at least 10 percent below the 200-day level to 10 percent above, it posted gains during the next 12 months, Bloomberg data since 1921 show.



And here's its data to back that up:

bb data set.PNG


Unfortunately, nothing's a sure thing when it comes to this kind of technical trend analysis. Are we reaching that signal like in 1933 to expect a 54% 12-month return, or like in 1939 to expect a 16.7% 12-month loss? We'll know in 12 months!

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