Felix Salmon is doubtful:

As for the bonds, this could turn out to be a really bad time to move into fixed income -- possibly the worst in living memory. Two things we know for sure: interest rates are incredibly low right now, and recovery values given default have also never been lower. A third thing we can be pretty sure about: the number of defaults is going to go up substantially before it starts coming down. Yes, spreads are quite wide, but only arbitrageurs care about spreads. Retail investors care about yields.

Put all that together, and you have a bond market where the downside is vastly greater than the upside. Yields can't fall much further than they have already, and default rates can certainly rise. So why buy bonds? Stay in cash, and you get a very similar yield for much less risk.

How long 'til analysts start touting canned goods and ammunition?


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