Steve Clemons

Steve Clemons is Washington editor at large for The Atlantic and editor of Atlantic Live. He writes frequently about politics and foreign affairs. More

Clemons is a senior fellow and the founder of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation, a centrist think tank in Washington, D.C., where he previously served as executive vice president. He writes and speaks frequently about the D.C. political scene, foreign policy, and national security issues, as well as domestic and global economic-policy challenges.

Aspen Ideas 2012: Revolution and Introspection

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Chrystia Freeland, the sassy smart, globe-trotting provocateur and editor of ThomsonReuters Digital, helped open the 2012 Aspen Ideas Festival yesterday evening by pushing back against Walter Isaacson's characterization of the American idea. 

Isaacson-Walter_pic.jpgIsaacson spoke of America being a hotbed of ideas and values that rub and push against each other, ultimately producing a balance and harmony among divergent interests.  Freeland pushed back, saying "that's Canada -- not America."

"America," Freeland argued, "is the place of revolutions."  

Freeland expanded on this theme in the two minutes that she was allowed to speak at the Aspen Ideas opener to offer her "big idea" that we are now in the era of "leaderless revolutions." 

chrystia.jpegShe said that in the past, those who rose up against tyranny had to place bets on who and how many might protest and go to the streets.  She said, "if a hundred people went out, they ended up in prison.  If a million show up, the leader goes to jail."  Today, she said, technology allows protestors and organizers of revolutions to scale up and communicate across networks of networks. Leaders per se aren't needed in this densely communications enmeshed world, but there will be many revolutions as individuals garner power from those who have tried to corner and monopolize power.

Freeland and fourteen others offered two minute snippets of ideas, provocations, and just simple assertions before two thousand festival goers who will spend the next week at an annual cornucopia of seminars co-organized by the Aspen Institute and The Atlantic

Justin_Smith__Jeffrey_Goldberg.jpgAtlantic national correspondent Jeffrey Goldberg, who often writes about dark stuff like the ticking clock of an Israeli strike against Iran, said that there is too much self-seriousness in our policy discussions and proceeded to bust the room into laughter with a stream of hilarious vignettes and commentary.  Because of the buzz everywhere about The Atlantic's cover story, "Why Women Still Can't Have it All," Goldberg introduced himself as Anne-Marie Slaughter.  He then introduced himself as the Festival's director Kitty Boone, and then seemed apologetic for revealing that he was only Jeffrey Goldberg.  He said "the joke" is under appreciated and needs revival.  Those who know him should ask about the "CIA-trained speaking beagle".

Back to the serious side, Marketplace's Kai Ryssdal argued that America had forgotten that it was a place forged by risk-taking and change and that it needed to rediscover and deploy that heritage of growth through instability.  Atlantic national correspondent James Fallows argued that if US Senators wanted to continue undermining progress and legislative activity through the filibuster, then there should be 41 bodies on the floor of the Senate the entire time of the filibuster.  In other words, if Senators felt strongly about stopping legislative machinery, then they needed to put their back and time into it.  Fallows calls it the "41 Body Rule".

Dele_Olojede_1__0.jpgAtlantic tech guru Alexis Madrigal offered the provocative view that humans would soon be able to program themselves -- their choices about diet, fun, information, tasks -- with technologies and sensors embedded in everything they do.  Filmmaker Louie Psihoyos said that the world is approaching a massive ecological tipping point disaster, stating that plankton are disappearing at a rate of 1% a year -- and when the plankton are gone, we are dead, along with a lot of other life on the planet.  Nigerian Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Dele Olojede decided to challenge political correctness about universal suffrage in developing countries -- arguing along Hamiltonian lines that uninformed political decisions and votes are dangerous and a threat to genuine democracy.  He fears mob rule in Africa that is held in place by voters who know nothing and whose stakes in healthy civil society are weak.

The Festival, which I'll be covering along with a team of other Atlantic writers this week, offers a rich array of programming along big concept 'tracks'.  Those offered include:

WORLD AFFAIRS:  Democracy on Trial
THE ECONOMY:  Is the Crisis Permanent?
OUR PLANET:  Seven Billion and Counting
ARTS AND CULTURE:  Art Matters
AMERICA 2012
WHAT WE BELIEVE AND WHY: An Exploration of Values
SPORTS:  Taken Seriously
RADICAL DISRUPTION:  The Transformative Power of Technology
WAR AND PEACE IN THE MODERN WORLD
THE CHILD:  Raising the 21st Century Child
FRONTIERS OF SCIENCE
There are a lot of wealthy folks here -- with time on their hands that they admirably want to deploy towards learning about major challenges in the world -- but there is considerable diversity here as well -- including high school students from challenging environments supported by the Bezos Scholars Program -- and numerous speakers, Aspen Ideas Fellows, and journalists who ethnically and economically broaden those in the halls further than America's 1%.

Notes from the Aspen Ideas Festival -- See full coverage
Yesterday, 9/11 and BP Oil Spill compensation czar Ken Feinberg talked about 'pricing life'.  This morning, I saw former ISAF Commander in Afghanistan General Stanley McChrystal jogging in the early hours.  (I gave him the runner's 'hey' but didn't get a nod back and wondered if he somehow knew i was pals with Michael Hastings.)  Last night, actress and culture activist Anna Deavere Smith chatted with me about the need to diversify the culture here -- surfers, maybe some thugs, and definitely more religiously animated folks who represent key corners of the American ecosystem.  As I write this, I am listening to American Enterprise Institute President Arthur Brooks loudly speak (in a public area) about his plans to "take back America" by hiring "young killers" from America's top universities to re-energize and essentially re-animate America's conservative movement.

There is all sorts of stuff going on here.  Brooks is on fire.  Wish Jane Hamsher or Ezra Klein were in the room to mix it up a bit. Brooks did acknowledge that Harvard, Yale, Princeton are still producing some "lefties" but he's hiring a bunch of "young killers" who can help change the political equation in the country.  Fascinating.

If the Festival succeeds, people will get out of their comfort zones and spend time learning about ideas and issues they know little about. 

There will be Goldberg-style levity, self-serious discussions, a lot of introspection about our society and world, and as I'm hearing from Arthur Brooks, one of the leading conservative public intellectuals in the country now, there will be attempts at revolution as well.

Drone Intel Complex Clobbers Strategists and Diplomats

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Reuters

David Ignatius reveals this morning that US Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter has fought hard and ultimately failed to maintain ultimate 'country authority' over the CIA's drone attacks inside Pakistan.

Ignatius writes:

As America's relationship with Pakistan has unraveled over the past 18 months, an important debate has been going on within the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad over the proper scope of CIA covert actions and their effect on diplomatic interests.

The principals in this policy debate have been Cameron Munter, the U.S. ambassador since October 2010, and several CIA station chiefs who served with him.  The technical issue was whether the ambassador, as chief of mission, had the authority to veto CIA operations he thought would harm long-term relations.  Munter appears to have lost this fight.
Munter is no ordinary campaign-contributing pal of Barack Obama and didn't buy his perch in Islamabad like so many other US Ambassadors

Munter is one of the few career foreign service officers who has stacked up respect not only from his State Department colleagues -- but across other agencies and departments, particularly the Department of Defense for his pivotal work in securing Congressional approval of NATO expansion during the Clinton administration, and from the various intelligence agencies for his 'smart power approach' to trying to simultaneously win the hearts and minds of citizens in Pakistan while also understanding that some targets require deployed hard power.

According to Ignatius' interesting report, Munter has fought the significant expansion of drone attacks, particularly when US-Pakistan relations are on the verge of catastrophic rupture.

Ignatius also reveals that CIA Director David Petraeus has often sided with Munter and his concern about an increasingly zealous drone targeting program -- and that Petraeus and the chief of the CIA's Counterterrorism Center, whose name is classified and is referred to as "Roger", have had substantial disputes with each other over drone targeting and attacks.

The possible implications of this report on Munter's frustration and political loss is that this punctuates a larger set of failures.

First, Hillary Clinton, in her launch of the QDDR (Quadrennial Diplomacy & Development Review), made a statement at the time that the Department of State was re-asserting itself as the "statutory lead" in America's conflict situations abroad.  This statement that she made at the launch of the QDDR was seen as part of a strategy to rebalance the powers between the military/intel part of America's power equation with the diplomatic/economic elements of statecraft.

It seems that by allowing the drone-deployers to prevail over the diplomats, the Obama White House is pushing tactics over strategy.  Some may debate this -- and I welcome that debate -- but a drone triumphalism seems to be dominating over other key strategic equities that the U.S. should be concerned about.

Secondly, the Petraeus revelations remind one a bit of the privileged, off the grid activities organized by David Addington in the Bush/Cheney White House.  It is one thing to see that the Department of State is predictably losing another national security power struggle in the White House; it is an entirely different thing to see that an operation inside the CIA is resisting and bucking the authority of that agency's director, perhaps because the Counterterrorism Center sees its reporting line directly to the White House and President. 

David Addington always felt that his off-grid work in creating a Kafka-esque system of secret prisons and policies surrounding combat detainees was done with the direct authority of the President (and Vice President).

David Ignatius' article is titled "Drones vs. Diplomacy".  The consequences for the nation, during the presidency of a Democrat who once opposed many of the Bush administration's anti-terror methodologies, of letting 'drones' win could be enormous.

Global Leaders Are Still Dithering on Syria and the Eurozone

Obama's G20 press conference offered little substance on the two crises facing the world.

obamaputin_bnr.jpgReuters

Yesterday evening on MSNBC's Hardball, Chris Matthews speculated before the start of an announced press conference in Los Cabos, Mexico that President Obama had an extensive slate of topics he could delve into and move his political ball forward.

There was rampant speculation that a deal of some sort had been cobbled together with Russia and other countries on a new game plan for dealing with violence in Syria.  Others thought that the President would announce that European nations had finally agreed to measures that would end the Eurozone crisis. Some thought that the beleaguered nuclear talks that European High Commissioner for Foreign Affairs Catherine Ashton had been suffering through with Iran might have moved in a positive direction.  Chris Matthews said that Obama is the first incumbent President of the United States who by executive order is ceasing deportations of young illegal residents, a hugely controversial political topic, might expand on that political chess move.

Instead, the President offered no real new news on any of these subjects.  I was waiting in the wings to possibly discuss Obama's comments on MSNBC, but there was so little there that the networks I was checking in on -- CNN, Fox, and MSNBC -- rapidly shut down discussion of the President's G20 remarks.

Obama wasted the time of those watching this presser with soporific comments about his believe that Europe's leaders were committing to do the things that needed to be done to "restore confidence, stability, and economic growth" in Europe.  He said that Europe's leaders knew they needed to move "urgently", taking "all necessary measures" to stabilize the economic situation -- referring specifically to commitments to get healthier "feedback loops between sovereigns and banks".  He said that Europe's leaders were producing deals on new banking supervision rules, resolution structures, and deposit insurance.

Bottom line is that Obama applauded Europe for doing nothing.  Obama was not able to say that Europe had finally come to terms with the fact that it needed some form of de facto Europe-spanning Ministry of Finance to synthesize divergent economic realities and political structures inside Europe -- nor had come to a deal where the surplus countries inside Europe (i.e., Germany) were going to essentially set up a structure that would take responsibility for managing the debt load of major Eurozone deficit countries. 

What Obama said that Europe's leaders had agreed to are provisions that don't get ahead of the financial crisis at all.  They probably deepen the crisis in my view.  Confidence will continue to deteriorate.

On Syria, Obama said that Bashar al-Assad had lost his legitimacy as a leader -- but that China and Russia were not with the US in agreeing on what need to be done.  Obama offered no new proposals on what the West might do to either pressure Assad to leave, or plans on how to end the violence.

Here is a transcript of the session.  The Washington Post's Gene Robinson got it right away -- stating on MSNBC that there was no new news at all in the press conference.  Nothing.

On Twitter, I posted this quick review of the session:

Steve Clemons @SCClemons
Hmmm No Drama Obama was NO NEWS #Obama tonight on Syria and Euro Crisis. One of Obama's worst press conferences in terms of substance
My tweet drew this response from an insider national security policy observer who is good to follow

NatSecWonk @NatSecWonk
Have you considered the possibility that he did NOT want to make news tonight #Obama

I really hadn't thought about the idea that Obama would have a press conference to say  nothing of depth about the pressing issues facing the country -- or would choose not to revealing more about his decision on illegal immigrants or other matters.

I was where Chris Matthews was, excited about the possibility of Obama delivering new deals or ideas that the world would react to.

But confirming @NatSecWonk's suspicions, I called the White House press office before the press conference asking for someone to give me a bit of preparatory guidance on what the President would be getting into -- and was told that all of the key press and communications folks had "gone home for the day."

Should have gotten the message then.

More »

Bleak Streets: Johnny Cash Meets Eminem in Tunisia

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Photo Credit: Steve Clemons

After the end of America's Civil War and the death of Abraham Lincoln, an envoy from Tunisia presented President Andrew Johnson with a huge portrait of the 'Bey of Tunis', His Highness the Mushir Mohammed Essadek.  The inscription below appears on the frame of the portrait which now hangs in the opulent reception room of the Department of State.

bey of tunis-thumb-300x81-3268.jpgHis Highness the Mushir Mohammed Essadek, Bey of Tunis

Portrait presented as a souvenir of his Friendship on November 1865 by his Envoy Gen. Otman Hashem, bearer of letters of condolence for the assassination of President Lincoln and of congratulations for the termination of the Civil War.

Nearly 150 years later, there are a great number of Americans, Europeans, wealthy educated Arabs from the region and others working hard with Tunisians after their revoulution to mend the severe social and economic damage done by a corrupt, totalitarian regime.  I have been getting different reads on how things are going. 

Lately, anecdotal reports have been pretty good from people who seem to be gaining confidence in the political evolution thus far and argue that what looked like a rising tide of Islamic Salafist influence may be ebbing.  A friend, Foued Mokrani, has extensive family in Tunisia and wavers from high hopes for changes underway to depression and concern.  Mokrani has been more positive lately -- but his cousin is featured in the less optimistic video below.

At the end of March, Jeffrey Christiansen, an Arabic-fluent graduate of Georgetown now working in Tunis, sent me a cynical assessment:
 
Tunis is great, if only for me personally. My job in private equity has kept me on my tip toes, confronting me with financial and legal work I never imagined I'd do my first 5 months. My first two months, I warmed up with fund reporting; now, I'm focused on a negotiation with OPIC, the US overseas investment branch, for a 40m dollar deal, plus managing the financial analysis behind it all. So my learning curve has been steep. . .

The country, on the other hand, is stressed, going through difficult times. The economy is worse than before the revolution. Disrupted supply chains, strikes for higher salaries, and weak export demand from the EU has dampened econ recovery, leading to growth forecasts of 2 percent for the year and dashing people's hopes for a rapid improvement in unemployment and incomes.

So frustration with the new government is mounting. So too are social tensions. Salafists are growing more aggressive in demanding the right for women to wear the niqaab, excoriating journalists for saying or printing material they find offensive, and some even calling for an Islamic Caliphate.

Shockingly, the government hasn't done much about it, reinforcing fears among secular coastal elites that their country is heading for disaster.  The growing divide within al-Nahda between moderate elements and more extreme ones is no doubt one of the reasons for government inaction on socio-religious unrest. 
And here is a snap shot from the arts to get a more gritty vibe.  This rap song from some guys in Tunisia, Kazablanka & 7ammati [Hammati], is something of a hybrid of Johnny Cash meets Eminem in Tunisia.  I love the music -- and had it roughly translated. 

I'm sure that the translation needs some work -- and feel free to improve or correct what I have up here, and I'll amend appropriately. 

But read what they're saying.  Things aren't good.  Their generation is still screwed.  In homage to Bouazizi perhaps, they are singing that they still can't set up decent, legal businesses.

It's just a song -- but bleakness prevails in it.  And they ask, Ila Mata?  Til When?

 
Til When?
by Kazablaka & 7Ammati

The liquor got me feeling good, 'desals'
[can't figure out this word] got me feeling good too.
I'm just trying to get a ride tonight.
We are going to do whatever we want to do....
So fill your cup to the top brother take that shot, bring that honey right home with you.
You better get like me just follow my lead and you can be feeling good too.

I'll tell you the life story of poor victims of circumstance.
Our field is the street, and that's where we learn to fight to survive.

Blood and weapons become an art ... Fighting our brothers and friends become our joke, and routine .

Our lives are lost, all on drugs and alcohol ..our bodies full of scars that we have mutilated ourselves to look like tigers.  

We act like strong monsters loud and aggressive but we are really just soft birds at the end ..
Our end is the same -- jail or dying !!  ....Til when ??

Hello everyone. We are Kazablanka and my brother Hamati from Ras Zanga ...
My brain is going to explain and all I need is some marijuana to settle down and forget our pain .

Everyone thinks about leaving the country illegally and living in Europe,
But you can't trust anyone anymore even to do that !!

We are getting skinny like Somalis .. We thought things will change after the revolution but all we got is a dick right in the ass ..

Worse and worse -- you cannot even think about setting up a decent legal business !!

In the end, we are fucked up .. our life is drugs and blood -- and the worst of it is that we have no regret ... Til when?

What It Really Takes to Change Washington

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Larry Downing / Reuters

When I started working in the U.S. Senate in the mid-1990s, my then-boss Senator Jeff Bingaman handed me, like he did to every incoming member of his staff, a copy of Eric Redman's book, The Dance of Legislation: An Insider's Account of the Workings of the United States Senate.

The book tells Redman's own story of then working on Senator Warren Magnuson's team and getting to know through error and success the machinery of the Senate legislative process.

Redman learns that gravitational forces work differently for a Senator and his or her staff than they do for others in the administration, or the courts, or in the lobbying and advocacy arena.

Senators, if they desire to, don't have to be spineless and passive -- but can make their own weather. They can write and pass laws - though successful legislating can be an excruciatingly frustrating, irrational process. In the end, Redman plays a tipping point role in getting a National Health Service bill passed.

One can overdo typologies and models in trying to describe social phenomena -- but sometimes they work. When I was absorbing what I could about how the mechanics of politics and policymaking worked, I was influenced by the writing of Ripley and Franklin, who wrote Congress, the Bureaucracy and Public Policy. They suggest that there are many factors -- among them "time", the nature and number of policy actors in a decision, and the regularity or irregularity of the policy under consideration -- that effect legislative and political outcomes.

bill.jpgIn other words, Ripley and Franklin argued that structure and the context in which policy is debated and formed matters -- and Eric Redman shows that empowered political actors who understand the tools
and mechanisms of politics and legislative process can have significant impact.

This is a round about way of saying that I am intrigued by stories of those who try to pass or change legislation. No matter whether the impulse for change is outside the system -- like HIV/AIDS activists were during the Reagan administration battling for attention and resources -- or inside, like Senator Warren Magnusson's legislative assistant -- it's nearly always a byzantine process that changes the roster of winners and losers. It's how American style democracy works, and I find it fascinating.

In part because of America's and the world's growing dependence on China's production muscle, I have been interested in what the U.S. needs to do to prevent its standards from being undermined by lesser standards, poor regulation, illiterate workers, and corruption abroad. What are the legal and regulatory adjustments that need to be made to shore up American standards -- rather than have them slip to levels seen elsewhere around the world?

g242332_u94601_FDR_fireside_chat_March_1933.jpgThe U.S. Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, passed in 1938, and only modified in minor ways since was originally introduced because more than 100 patients died because of a highly toxic hospital-administered drug. Today, there are scores of stories emerging around the world in which counterfeit drugs are proliferating in a lightly, often corruptly, regulated global drug industry. The media in China, India, countries in Africa and Southeast Asia often run stories about deaths and illness stemming from drugs being taken that are unsafe.

In the past, when the American drug and pharmaceuticals industry was mostly based inside the borders of the country, the regulatory and inspection scheme provide by the 1938 Food and Drug Act was adequate. But those days are gone. 

Today, roughly 80 percent of the active ingredients for drugs sold inside the United States are manufactured abroad -- often in lightly regulated environments, or ones where corruption
undermines what is often just a façade of regulation.

The 1938 Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act is anachronistic in the sense that the law doesn't give the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) the resources or authority to adequately regulate and inspect incoming drug and pharmaceuticals stock from international sources. The vulnerability of U.S. citizens to dangerous drug materials has been increasing -- but virtually nothing (until recently) has been done to wave red flags that U.S.-focused food and drug regulators are no longer really inspecting what U.S. consumers, popping pills made in Xian, China and elsewhere.

Writing about some new possible deals that might fix this regulatory blind spot and major health risk to Americans, the New York Times' Gardiner Harris writes:

Although branded drugs usually have more secure supply chains than those of generics, major pharmaceutical companies have moved aggressively into China in recent years and often rely on rarely inspected suppliers.

Federal officials for years have expressed concerns about the nation's growing reliance on sometimes mysterious foreign drug suppliers, but they had largely despaired of fixing the
problem. Congress had never given the FDA the money it needed to inspect these plants, and for nearly two decades the generic industry to pay inspection fees.

The industry changed its stance for several reasons. First, the heparin scandal scared everyone. The fake ingredient was good enough to pass a sophisticated test, so the conspirators probably knew that deaths would result, reflecting a callous level of
greed. And the Chinese government refused to allow the FDA to investigate, suggesting that the perpetrators were not only smart but politically well connected.

heather bresch.jpgIn his interesting Times piece, Gardiner outlines other reasons why the U.S. drug industry and American regulators may be ready to strike a new deal overhauling the out-of-date law. 

A key reason he highlights is the policy agitating of an individual, Heather Bresch, the recently appointed 42-year old CEO of Mylan Inc., a Pittsburgh-based generic
drug firm ranked No. 396 on the Fortune 500.

If Eric Redman was updating his fascinating book, written originally in the 1970s, he might focus on what an outsider like Bresch with insider DNA (her dad is Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia) was doing to change a major regulatory framework and shake up the drug industry and those who regulate it.

Bresch has been with Mylan for about 20 years -- working up the ladder from a job she got typing drug labels at what was then Mylan's sole drug plant in Morgantown, West Virginia. She knows the drug industry line by line and term by term, all the pharma-speak slang and acronyms. She told me that for decades, the FDA has kept two inspectors on site at the Morgantown facility, which is huge. But through globalization and mergers with other firms, Mylan has operations all over the world today -- but there is no consistent inspection regime overseeing these other facilities.

In late 2011, Bresch was made CEO of Mylan. If her dad were not a U.S. senator, it would really be a perfect Horatio Alger, from mail room to the top, story -- but spending time with her, it becomes immediately clear that her intellectual dexterity with the details of running a global pharmaceuticals business has nothing to do with family connections. Her father is not my favorite senator -- having missed a key vote on Don't Ask, Don't Tell and as governor of West Virginia suing to block federal regulatory frameworks that would prioritize the health and safety of miners and protect the environment. Senator Manchin, most likely because of how he reads his state's political currents, is often a regulation foe rather than advocate.

That is what makes his daughter's behavior since becoming Mylan's CEO so interesting. Heather Bresch is leaning into and wants more regulation for her own industry.  

When Bresch ascended to her recent perch, she surprised many by not just leaving things as they were when it came to the comfortable, long standing, structured relationship between FDA inspectors and U.S. producers.

Bresch told me she commissioned some work last year that showed that she and the U.S. pharmaceuticals industry writ large were facing enormous liabilities if drugs that they manufactured abroad and sold into the U.S. proved to be fraudulent or 'bad'. She knew after two decades of interaction with FDA regulators at the Morgantown production facility that Mylan's sites outside the U.S. had virtually no regulatory oversight. And this was true for every other major U.S. pharmaceuticals producer.

imgname--china_starts_drug_recall_system---50226711--pills.jpgShe also sensed that the unlevel regulatory playing field, added to other cost factors such as skimpy environmental standards and low wage rates abroad, was going to economically gut punch U.S. producers in the long run. Like so much of the rest of American industry that had off-shored to China, India, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and more -- the pharmaceutical producers were going to face cost decisions on regulation that could undermine not only the job base of the U.S. but also the physical health of citizens.

So in a move that not many business CEOs typically make (and in my book very consistent with The Atlantic's criteria for "Brave Thinkers"), Heather Bresch began a full board campaign demanding more regulation from the government that would deal with the industry in a global rather than national framework. She strong-armed other of her leading pharmaceuticals industry competitors to join her in proposing a new tax on their industry, called generic drug user fees, of $300 million annually to fund an expansion of FDA regulators.

Her talking points include nods on shoring up American competitiveness against low-regulation, often corrupt competitors abroad and enhancing drug safety for consumers. But these problems have been facing the industry for some time. 

On one level, Bresch's survey of liabilities facing Mylan is sensible and rational -- but the fact that she immediately tried to push both FDA regulators to expand their scope and encourage an industry to invite more inspection seems staggeringly different than the passivity of others staring at the same environment. For this, Bresch deserves recognition.

The 1938 law, as of this moment, still stands -- but Bresch has unified the American industry in pushing for an overhaul, and while some bureaucrats deep in the FDA would like to see things remain as they were, FDA Commissioner Margaret Hamburg has endorsed the user fee proposal from the industry and applauded Bresch for her advocacy of broadened regulatory capacity for what is now a global generic drug industry.

The House of Representatives and Senate are now considering legislation that would achieve what Bresch has put into motion -- and many policy watchers in this arena handicap the chances of these user fees and expanded FDA authority becoming law as very likely.

It's rare to see the significance of a single person move regulation in Washington, but from my vantage point, what Bresch seems to be achieving is akin to what Eric Redman pulled off in his work on the inside as a staffer for Senator Magnuson.

There are more acts left before the 1938 Food and Drug Act is really overhauled and we'll report back as things develop. 

When I asked what other big tasks Bresch was taking on, just to get a sense of whether her work on shaking up both regulators and her industry was just a fluke, she said that her other two major goals were first to blast apart the legal environment and attack the lack of awareness and education that kept a 7-year old child suffering from anaphylactic shock at school from being given an EpiPen, leading to his death. She wants much broader, public availability of EpiPens -- just like heart defibrillators -- with public education and legal waivers given to those who try to help people in need.

Her other bucket of work is working to further expand affordability and access to HIV/AIDS drugs and treatment in the developing world. While she lauds what George W. Bush did in expanding resources for HIV/AIDs in Africa, she said much more needs to be done. She said that on the positive side when the program started there were 4000 people being treated in Africa, and that has risen to 4 million. The problem, Bresch says, is that there are 10 million people who should be treated and aren't. She says that to stem the tide of AIDS in Africa, people need treatment the moment they are diagnosed; treatment can reduce further transmission rates by 98 percent. But she says that "Democrats are not touching this because it's seen as a Republican initiative."

She outlined quickly for me steps she thought were key -- making this work more of a private initiative than one just run by the government, perhaps renaming the initiative, doing more with less, and getting a sustainable diagnosis and treatment model in place rather than the boom and bust model of HIV/AIDS work done in Africa today.

I do know that the structure of the policy making environment matters -- that think tanks are home for governments in exile, that money creatively (and legally) deployed can make a Senator smile, that the mutual back-scratching culture of Washington can seem corrupt, that politicians always feel the tug to run against the realities of power here. But what interests me about this place is that occasionally an Eric Redman wins, a Jacob Hacker (who pushed and lost on the health care public option) can kick a debate out of its grooves, and that a Heather Bresch, regardless of a powerful dad who is not a profile in courage, can set out to overhaul a 74-year old law and probably win.

I think that qualifies as a Brave Thinker (but I'm not the decider) -- but at minimum, as a brave doer.

Not The Onion: Moscow Bans Gay Pride for Next 100 years

gay protest moscow.jpgThis is not from The Onion, and it's not April Fool's.  Moscow's city and district courts are in unison that gay pride parades in Moscow will be banned until at least 2112 -- 100 years from now.

Human Rights First is already out with its condemnation:

Human Rights First condemns the Tverskoy District Court ruling to uphold the decision of Moscow authorities to ban gay pride parades in the city until May 2112. The Moscow City Hall has banned such events for seven consecutive years, citing numerous letters from public officials, religious organizations, and private citizens urging the authorities to prohibit a demonstration. The European Court of Human Rights pronounced these bans illegal in October 2010. (photo credit: Reuters)

"This unprecedented ban is not entirely surprising, but Russia's society is evolving at a pace not even Vladimir Putin can control," said Human Rights First's Innokenty Grekov.  "More people are becoming accepting and tolerant to LGBTI persons. The 100-year ban, along with the discriminatory laws prohibiting "promotion of homosexuality" that are spreading through local legislatures, show that the Russian government remains behind the times."

Putin better go back and study up on the Hegelian dialectic.  It's hard to imagine a more animating event than a 100-year ban to throw at gays, their families and friends, and believers in democracy than such an absurd and comic ban.

I can see the G8 meeting protest rallies, the UN General Assembly events, the websites taunting Putin and his judges, and more.  The gay crowd will harrass and torment and undermine and prevail over those trying to repress them.  This ban is a gift.   

This may become one of my favorite new causes as well.  Russia -- strategically important, a key member of the UN P-5, a country America must work with on challenges ranging from Iran to Syria to global oil and energy issues, with a steady and mostly sensible foreign minister -- is increasingly becoming a farce among nations, its seriousness dissolving with idiotic gestures like this gay ban.

Panetta Courts India to Up its Game in Afghanistan?

s1.reutersmedia.net.jpegDefense Secretary Leon Panetta is now in New Delhi reportedly encouraging India to increase its role inside Afghanistan.  Isn't that exactly what Pakistan fears? 

When I spoke to former President Pervez Musharraf at a Washington College event on Maryland's eastern shore last year, Musharraf lamented that Afghanistan did not send its government officials and military to train in Pakistan.  He said "they send all of these people to India for training and education." (photo to right: Reuters)

He argued that this sort of rejection of Pakistan institutions and relations by the Afghan government apparatus only heightened Pakistan's paranoia about India's influence in this key strategic border state.  Musharraf said that Pakistan would cover all the costs for training Afghan technocrats.

268389-musharrafatlantic-1317922768-444-640x480.jpgWhether this is smart for Afghan civil servants or not (and probably not), many Afghans feel that they have little control over what happens inside their national boundaries -- that Iran, Pakistan, India, China, the US all have agendas, agents and stakes inside the country.

Perhaps as the US downsizes its military footprint, the American strategy now being deployed is of balancing, or tipping as the case may be, the contending forces inside -- pitting Indians, Pakistanis, and perhaps Iranian interests against each other inside Afghanistan. Or maybe (facetiously) it is the Chinese pitting us against Pakistan and Iran inside the country with India as an ally?

Whatever the game afoot may be, it seems that the plans for a US-nudged India-Pakistan rapprochemont as a key step in stabilizing Afghanistan may have just been torn up by the Defense Secretary who remains frustrated with Pakistan's lack of cooperation on the terror front.

George Washington and the Queen

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Tonight much of Washington, DC's glitterati will attend the Diamond Jubilee festivities saluting the reign of Queen Elizabeth II at the British Embassy. It will be packed -- all under the able management of Ambassador Peter Westmacott and his wife -- and his suffer-no-fools, knows-everyone social secretary Amanda Downes.

At the time of the Royal Wedding of William and Catherine, then Ambassador to the US Nigel Sheinwald and his wife Julia arranged for really tough-to-get premium label whiskeys and liqueurs as well as a cool photo backdrop so that guests could get souvenir pics making it look like they were 'there.' Will be interesting to hear what the Embassy arranges for the Queen's big cheer tonight.

For those who tilt a different European direction and are done with monarchs, there is Italy's National Day party being hosted by Ambassador Claudio Bisogniero at the spectacular Italian Embassy designed by Piero Sartogo.

Cafe Milano (the restaurant that could have been bombed allegedly by Saudi-targeting Iranian agents) owner and DC's leading Italian Franco Nuschese will be helping to keep the evening festive, high-powered, and tasty.

Another top option tonight is a gala dinner hosted at George Washington home Mt. Vernon, for the presentation of the annual George Washington Book Prize, a $50,000 award given to the year's best book on America's founding era.   The dinner is organized jointly by the C.V. Starr Center for the Study of the American Experience at Washington College (founded in 1782 with George Washington a founding member of the liberal arts school's Board of Visitors), the Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History, and Mt. Vernon.

A history enthusiast, Supreme Court Associate Justice Samuel Alito has been just about every year I have attended and hear he'll be on the lawn of the historic white mansion again tonight.

But a special shout out to British friend, Edward Luce, for joining us to toast George Washington (with the historically correct three "Huzzahs!") tonight. Luce is chief US Commentator for the Financial Times and author of the recent (important) book titled Time to Start Thinking: America in the Age of Descent.

I feel we George Washington stalwarts are trading Luce to the British in exchange for the 'Washington' Post's Jonathan Capehart and political machine Terry McAuliffe who both will be at the Embassy tonight (and much of the rest of Washington who can't seem to get enough of British royalty).

Another of the George Washington Prize dinner guests will be Ambassador Hattie Babbitt, former US Ambassador to the Organization of American States and former Deputy Administrator of US AID (as well as married to environmental advocate and former contender for the Democratic presidential nomination Bruce Babbitt).

Babbitt wrote this interesting tribute to Washington and the lesson by example he set in an email to me today:

Part of my enthusiasm [for attending the George Washington Prize dinner] comes from a greater understanding of just how important Washington's refusal of another term was in the success of our national experiment. Imagine how different the world would be if a very long list of post colonial leaders had made the same decision -- Egypt and the Arab world come most immediately to mind, but most of sub Sahara Africa fits too.

So, cheers to Italy (whose Mario Monti is turning out to be an important Obama ally on the economic front) -- cheers to Queen Elizabeth for the symbolic role she plays and good work she and her charities do -- and Huzzah to George Washington for not [then] staying another term.

What Happens When They Get Drones?

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AP

David Ignatius' gripping novels are quickly emerging as the spy industry's narcotic for smart, complex intelligence yarns to read on long flights.  His made-for-movies stories seem to be a hybridized LeCarre with a twist of Michael Crichton as he reveals tectonic fault lines between an overly self-confident, reckless America and a fragmented, in spots radicalized, almost always misunderstood Islamic world.

His latest novel,
Bloodmoney: A Novel of Espionage, has recently appeared in paperback and should be required reading for wannabe strategists who want a glimpse of how messy and convulsive the future is probably going to be.  America will remain a big, important power into the foreseeable future, but a myriad of new players pushing back on U.S. institutions and interests heighten the complexity and danger for a declining superpower holding tightly to anachronistic global arrangements.

Ignatius, long-time national security columnist for the
Washington Post and author as well of the novel-turned-movie Body of Lies, makes an important policy point via fiction that 'the other guys' -- in this case, vengeance-driven Pakistanis who have legitimate grievances against a drone-lobbing America -- will one day have the technology and systems sophistication to to turn the West's military and economic assets against it.

Bloodmoney
probably should have been called Blowback: The Costs and Consequences of American Empire, but that title was already taken by the late Chalmers Johnson who wrote a pre-9/11 treatise arguing that American hubris, its global sprawl of US military bases, and influence-machinery around the world were going to trigger push-back, or blowback as it were, from states no longer wanting to play by U.S. rules in a post-Cold War World -- eventually leading to a cataclysmic event.

One of the cases Johnson starts with in the book was the
1993 murder of CIA employees at a stoplight near the entrance to the Central Intelligence Agency by an aggrieved Pakistani man, Aimal Qazi, who was upset about American policy towards Palestinians. When the terror strikes by al Qaeda hit Washington, New York, and rural Pennsylvania on September 11, 2001, Johnson's Blowback became the most difficult in-print but out of stock book to get. The publisher could not keep the fast-selling, prescient books on the shelves. 

111010_drone_reuters_328.jpgIgnatius' novel starts out on a similar track to this real world event, opening with a US clandestine drone wiping out an innocent family -- mother and father, siblings, and nieces and nephews -- of an unusually smart tribal youth from South Waziristan, Pakistan.  The youth, Omar, was the West's dream kid -- moving via educational opportunity from the backward, tribal pool of an ignorant, terrorist-generating culture, to modernity -- becoming a globally-aware, traveled, and in the Western sense, rational person. (drone photo credit: Reuters)

Ignatius' Omar is a mathematical wunderkind who not only escaped the geographic gravitational forces of his Pashtun tribe but became an academic consulting to the world's spy agencies who wanted to know more about the world he came from.  This fictional fabrication again tracks closely with real life. 

Like some others from Pakistan and Afghanistan who have quietly and deeply buried their grievances with the West -- perhaps because of religion, or the loss of loved ones due to the military operations of the U.S. and its allies -- and bided their time until they were in important military and intelligence operations only to eventually explode killing their duped allies, Omar is committed to achieving a 'calibrated revenge' against those who killed his family. 

I won't reveal more of the plot, but I want to raise a few of the themes and nods that Ignatius weaves into this smart page-turner.

First of all, the West may be deceiving itself that education and roads, modernity writ large, will be a quick fix correcting ancient behavioral norms and codes written deeply into the DNA of tribal groups -- in this case Pashtun tribes but certainly not limited to them.

Ignatius' protagonist killer in the book is a professor possessed by deep impulses to avenge his family's murder. Ignatius' portrait of Omar defies easy typecasting as he sits between primitive and turbo-charged modern worlds; interestingly, Ignatius positions him at the end of the novel to be the one most ready to see a way back to 'balance', or a deal that would end the killing and restore calm.

cia.jpgNone of the other personalities in the book -- not the head of Pakistan's ISI, or the operatives of an off-the-books intelligence operation, or the spymasters running the CIA -- could understand that Omar could choose to stop his successful campaign and might strike an arrangement.  Ignatius is telling us that American policymakers still don't understand what could be achieved with the Taliban -- that it's not just a tug of war between a Pashtun uber alles formula or obliterating them.

Secondly, Ignatius has subtly taken sides in the novel, and surprisingly it's with the victimized Pakistani.  Omar, driven by understandable outrage, hit above his weight and achieved an intellectual and technical sophistication besting his adversaries.  The Americans in the novel arrogantly thought it would be impossible for anyone from relatively primitive circumstances in tribal zones in Pakistan  to develop the capacity to challenge the U.S. and Western allies in the way Omar did.  Ignatius reminds the reader that technology and innovation are globally accessible today and that neither the US nor any power have a monopoly on technological or economic innovation. 

In other words, Ignatius warns that weapons technology -- and complex financial instruments and structures -- will not remain the sole preserve of the U.S. and its allies.  What we throw at them may come back and be deployed against us. 

The pattern and link analysis that the Department of Treasury, National Security Agency, CIA, FBI, and other parts of the intelligence industrial complex have used with great effect to target terrorists and influence the behavior of thuggish officials in problematic nations, like Iran, North Korea, and Syria, could conceivably be acquired by our rivals.

While the US is today preparing to further expand its drone force and as of late arm Italian drones, Iran is now trying to develop its own drones.  So too it seems China and Russia.

The question that President Obama, who has admitted direct, routenized involvement in creating the drone 'kill list', should ponder is what will happen as the barriers to entry on drone technology fall enough so that an adversary's drones can be deployed against U.S. and allied forces and interests.

The key message behind David Ignatius's interesting book is that day is probably coming sooner than most think.

Martha Stewart and Mario Batali at Atlantic Food Summit



Thumbnail image for martha stewart.jpgI am moderating a chat today as part of a the larger Atlantic Food Summit that will stream live here starting at 1:00 pm EST.

I'll be moderating a panel at 1:30 pm titled "Feeding a World of Nine Billion -- Sustainably" with World Food Program CEO Rick Leach; National Pork Board CEO Chris Novak; Wellesley College professor Robert Paarlberg, Rodale Institute Executive Director Mark Smallwood, and Whole Living Executive Editor Jocelyn Zuckerman.

I'm just back from the Doha Forum where global food security was a key theme of the Qatar Emir's opener. Should be interesting.

Below the fold I have pasted the agenda for today's meeting. Atlantic Senior Editor Corby Kummer, one of the nation's great food commentators will be MCing most of the meeting -- and doing headline interviews with Martha Stewart (1 pm EST) and Mario Batali (2:30 pm EST). 

Schedule follows after link to extended page

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Eclipse and Windmills

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Photo credit:  Fred & Pat Espenak

Fred and Pat Espenak are eclipse-chasers and have been for years.  They have been leading friends and fans who are eclipse-obsessed on tours around the world to see some of the greatest syzygial moments of our time.  I haven't made one of these trips yet -- but will some day. 

NASA has officially acknowledged Fred as the world's leading eclipse authority. 

Fred Espenak is Scientist Emeritus for Goddard Space Flight Center, and a retired NASA astrophysicist. He is known throughout the world for his work on eclipse predictions and blogs at MrEclipse.com. His website lists dates and times for future solar eclipses through the year 2020.

This pic above was taken by Fred and his wife Pat -- they work together -- during the recent May 20th eclipse about which Fred writes here

John McCain's Institute Launches Today

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Despite some of my foreign policy differences -- like the whole bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb bomb Iran thing -- with Senator John McCain who once told me he was "the original neoconservative", I have always greatly, truly admired his patriotism and dedication to trying to get the American political system to operate honestly and in a way consistent with what the framers of the Constitution intended.  He has been a major voice in the country on campaign and elections reform, on fiscal matters, on national security, on immigration, and on leadership in every sense.

His body of work actually deserves a library to house it -- but our system doesn't give those who come in second place for the Presidency a National Archives run operation.  Instead, McCain and a bipartisan group of supporters -- including Senators Kelly Ayotte, Sheldon Whitehouse, Lindsey Graham, Mark Udall, Joe Lieberman, Carl Levin as well as CIA Director David Petraeus, and others --- are punctuating the start of a new university-based institute committed to the leadership principles John McCain exhibited and encouraged, particularly in young people.

Under the leadership of former US Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker who will serve as Executive Director and with a $9 million gift from the McCain institute Foundation (which itself received $9 million in donations from the McCain-Palin campaign surplus), Arizona State University is announcing today the establishment of the McCain Institute for International Leadership.

The McCain Institute press announcement specifies four key pillars of work: 

•    Provide decision recommendations for leaders through open debate and rigorous analysis, by convening experts, publishing policy-relevant research, and holding decision-making training events using cutting-edge technology.
•    Identify and train new national security leaders, both American and foreign, in public service and private enterprise, as well as military spheres.
•    Play a unique role in a crowded intellectual space by serving as Washington's preeminent "decision tank."
•    Promote and preserve the McCain family spirit of character-driven leadership and national service, including hosting the McCain family archives.
Here is the press release (pdf) announcing establishment of the new McCain Institute -- and here a 6-minute video of several of the Senators above as well as Cindy McCain and ASU President Michael Crow sharing why America needs another policy think tank.

A couple of quick thoughts.  First, John McCain is not a cookie cutter conservative and believes in the kind of rough-and-tumble politics where political actors and branches of government responsibly and vigorously compete and knock into each other. This is not the view of most ideologues -- and is an approach to politics that I think is often misunderstood and should be more greatly valued.

After a decision is reached and law is established, McCain believes that the law needs to be upheld.  As a recent example, John McCain opposed the ending of Don't Ask Don't Tell but sent important signals that he would respect and support the law once it was enacted -- and he has done that and impressed me and others with his position.

In my view, McCain has been a vital, rare point of conscience on trying to reverse the corrupt cesspool of advocacy politics today in America. 

I disagree with him on how he wants to throw the Pentagon at so many of America's international problems today -- with little regard for the overall stock of American power and with out working harder to discern what are America's core strategic challenges that are generationally-defining and other conflicts that may draw a moral impulse from us but which may need different tools and approaches.

In this promo video clip, it is interesting to note the decent amount of coverage given to Cindy McCain's work in Africa.  In one of the photo clips, she is shown with Ben Affleck. I'm glad to see Cindy McCain's efforts as part of the Institute's first self-narrative.

There are more than 1,500 think tanks in Washington -- most of them small one-person boutiques but many that are either homes for governments in exile or others that engage in serious policy work but are well-taught to pull their punches and avoid risk.

I'm glad the McCain Institute will be based outside of Washington -- and will also be run by Kurt Volker, a brilliant and steady national security hand who is well-liked and well-respected not just by Republicans, Dems, and Independents -- but by a range of foreign policy types from neocons to liberal internationalists to realists.  Kurt Volker is absolutely the right person to give the McCain Institute instant credibility and gravitas.

We look forward to seeing what the Institute's first contributions will be.

Romney Playing Cheney Card in Foreign Policy

Had a great discussion a few days ago with MSNBC's Chris Matthews and The Washington Post's Eugene Robinson about Mitt Romney's increasingly Cheney-like foreign policy positions.

Chris Matthews discusses Romney foreign policy frame with The Atlantic's Steve Clemons & The Washington Post's Eugene Robinson.

Romney seems like he is trying to cover up his Rockefeller Republican DNA with a mix of Goldwater foreign policy stridency combined with Dick Cheney/John Bolton style pugnacious hard-line attacks on President Obama's global deal-making.

Tonight off to Doha to participate in the Doha Forum.  More soon.

Bring It On: Obama Rallies the Base With Gay Marriage Endorsement

By supporting same-sex unions, Obama is giving his backers something to go to the streets to fight for.

President Obama just made history as the first incumbent president of the United States to endorse same sex marriage, during an interview with ABC News' Robin Roberts.

Admitting that his views had gone through an "evolution," Obama told Roberts:

I have to tell you that over the course of several years as I have talked to friends and family and neighbors when I think about members of my own staff who are in incredibly committed monogamous relationships, same-sex relationships, who are raising kids together, when I think about those soldiers or airmen or marines or sailors who are out there fighting on my behalf and yet feel constrained, even now that Don't Ask Don't Tell is gone, because they are not able to commit themselves in a marriage, at a certain point I've just concluded that for me personally it is important for me to go ahead and affirm that I think same sex couples should be able to get married.
The president's comments come just a day after North Carolina overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment defining marriage solely as a union between a man and a woman, shutting down same-sex marriage advocates there. 

Obama's comments also followed Vice President Biden's surprise affirmation of gay marriage on the widely watched Sunday politics show, Meet the Press with David Gregory.  Biden told the anchor that he was "absolutely comfortable" with gay marriage -- which then sent White House mandarins scurrying out to the media and interest groups to walk back Biden's comments, with administration spin-masters suggesting to reporters that the vice president had not actually endorsed gay marriage and had not broken new ground.

President Obama has now shattered any doubt about the administration's commitment to achieving fully equal civil rights for the GLBT (gay, lesbian, bisexual, transgender) community.  No shades of gray.  No politically sculpted safe place for the president to endorse same sex civil unions over marriages. No separate but equal. None of that any more.

What the president finally did today is brave. Others around the country have beaten him to the position. At this past year's Human Rights Campaign dinner, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's full-throated, resounding embrace of and support for gay marriage made President Obama's comments supporting the rights of gays (but not marriage) seem thin and weak-kneed. But Bloomberg is not behind the Oval Office desk -- and does not have to win presidential contests in North Carolina.

The question many in Washington are now asking is "Why did Obama do this?" "What's the political driver here?" "Why now?"

Perhaps Joe Biden's comments on the Sunday show were a fumble that the president decided to pick up in a magnificent display of conscience kicking in. 

Or perhaps more likely, the president in one of his regular private lunch meetings with the vice president encouraged Biden to stir things up by expressing his support for gays and gay marriage. Biden loves the gay community -- and he goes out of his way to affirm gays and lesbians in policy meetings, parties he hosts, and public functions around the nation. Biden presided over the swearing in of gay U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand David Huebner and lavished praise and affection on David's "husband" Duane McWaine. Walking into the room, Biden hugged numerous gay politicos and then walked right over to the legendary iconic gay rights advocate Frank Kameny and said to the room, "Now this is a real hero."

Many political handicappers won't be able to resist criticizing Obama for picking a fight in the culture war terrain that evangelical-strumming, Karl Rove-types have been trying to tease out for years. But President Obama is not prone to emotional leaps of faith and knee jerk shifts in policy. Their polls must show that the nation is ready to have this fight -- that most independents and Democrats think same-sex marriage should be a civil right.

With the enthusiasm of liberals and progressives for the president's reelection seeming somewhat wilted when compared to the Obama juggernaut of 2008, gay marriage now may be one of the big meta-issues of the time that isn't only about gays -- but is part of a package of progressive "wants," such action on climate change, environmental protection, defending a woman's right to make her own choices about birth and abortion, and more.

By supporting gay marriage, Obama is giving his crowd, his base, something to go to the streets to fight for. And to the cynics on the political right who think that Obama loses in a head on culture war, he is saying "Bring it On" -- not only because he thinks that supporting gay marriage is the right thing to do, but because it may now be very smart politics.

Romney vs. Obama on Bin Laden, Fighting Terrorism, and the 'End State' in Afghanistan

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photo credit: Reuters

The anniversary of Osama bin Laden's death has spiked public interest in the foreign policy positions of President Obama and Mitt Romney -- particularly with regards to fighting terrorism and the war in Afghanistan.  Over the last couple of days, I have done a number of shows across the networks -- but mostly have the clips from Current TV and MSNBC and want to post here (on next page).

I argue that Barack Obama deserves enormous credit (and political bragging rights) for the decision he made to send the Navy SEAL Team 6 in to get bin Laden.  He would have owned the disaster had things gone badly.  Mitt Romney's views -- or those he held previously criticizing the resources Obama was expending tracking down bin Laden -- are not shameful or unpresidential.  Those views were held by some around the President; some felt the risks were just too high to invade Pakistan's territory and attack the secret bin Laden compound.  President Obama overruled those on his team who conveyed their doubts.

The Bush/Cheney team took its eye off the bin Laden ball and turned attention and resources away from attacking bin Laden and al Qaeda and went after Saddam Hussein and later Iraqi insurgent forces instead.  Al Qaeda metastasized globally during that period - and Obama's national security team which meets every morning with him has been working one by one through the key al Qaeda commanders and plot integrators and attacking them.  The President has been at the helm of this process -- guided essentially by the work and focus of John Brennan, Denis McDonough, and NSC Advisor Tom Donilon.

Finally, Obama is connecting the anniversary of bin Laden's death to a pivot point in America's engagement with Afghanistan.  In other words, America -- completing substantially its strategic goal of decimating al Qaeda -- is now framing the enstate of its presence in Afghanistan. 

The strategic deal signed yesterday by Hamid Karzai and President Obama is binding but unspecific. Lots can go wrong with the vaguely constructed document which essentially promises that the United States will not abandon Afghanistan after combat troops fully end their mission in 2014.  But the President achieved what he wanted which was to fasten Obama's death and the general collapse of the core al Qaeda movement to a strategic shift for the United States.

Presidents find it very hard to end wars -- but Obama seems well on his way to ending America's overextension in Afghanistan as he did in Iraq.

On the following page are some video clips of conversations I have had with Chris Jansing, Eliot Spitzer, Al Sharpton, Chris Matthews, Lawrence O'Donnell, Andrea Mitchell and Rachel Maddow on this arenas of bin Laden-related and US-Afghanistan issues.

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Obama Lays Out the U.S. Endgame in Afghanistan

On the one-year anniversary of ordering a Navy SEAL team to kill Osama bin Laden, the president draws the contours of future American involvement in the country.

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AP

In a relatively brief 1,540 word speech at Bagram Air Base in a surprise trip to Afghanistan, President Obama has framed the key elements of what America's post-Afghanistan game will look like: moving in 2013 to a full support role for an Afghan security and police force now standing with a personnel of more than 352,000. The full transition of roles and responsibility will be fully complete by the end of 2014.

On Tuesday, Obama signed a binding agreement with Afghan President Hamid Karzai pledging an ongoing responsibility and strategic relationship between the U.S. and Afghanistan after the combat mission of US forces today ended. The so-called 'next' strategic relationship remains subject to speculation -- with caveats that a SOFA, or Status of Forces Agreement, governing the conditions under which U.S. soldiers would be treated still had to be negotiated; that the U.S. Congress would still have to agree annually to a budget that covers the ongoing expenses of this important relationship; and that the number of residual, non-combat troops left inside Afghanistan had not been determined. Most believe that number will be in the 15,000-20,000 range.

Tuesday night (early Wednesday morning, in Afghanistan), the president delivered a powerful message reminding Americans and the world that the invasion of Afghanistan was triggered by al Qaeda's terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, D.C. The killing of bin Laden and the decimation of the top tier of the al Qaeda network -- the president stating, "We devastated al Qaeda's leadership, taking out over 20 of their top 30 leaders" -- has given Obama a key opportunity not only to take credit for being an effective anti-terrorist occupant of the White House but to check-off the box in Afghanistan and to shift U.S. military and economic resources away from what has been a troubling and costly exercise -- one has not been amplifying American power around the world but leading many nations to conclude that the U.S. was military so overstretched and financially beleaguered that it could not support its allies in times of need.

In 2009, a senior White House official told me that if Obama failed to "deliver justice to Osama bin Laden, then John McCain would ultimately win, as we would be in a never-ending global war against terror and bin Laden." The capture or killing of Osama bin Laden was a necessary condition for an exit from Afghanistan.

In his speech Tuesday night, though, Obama also escapes the charge from many on the right and the left that the president wants fully out -- that, yet again, America would leave Afghanistan to rot and become vulnerable to hijacking by radical Islamic forces. By indicating that there would be some sort of minimalist after-life, or next-life of American engagement in the nation, he is saying 'we will not abandon Afghanistan' while at the same time telegraphing that the U.S. would not be responsible for everything that happens in the country.

If the residual force that Obama is helping to frame and set up with the U.S.-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership is in the rumored 15,000-20,000 person range, then that gives the U.S. enough firepower to help deter the overthrow of the government in Kabul and gives the U.S. a significant role over some factors inside Afghanistan -- even though various warlords and forces animated by the Taliban, Iran, Pakistan, and India may also play larger roles throughout the country.

Obama's speech indicated the pathway out of the current conflict -- and Senators John McCain, Lindsey Graham, and Joseph Lieberman who have argued that America should essentially never draw down, or at least not in the near to mid term, may be livid.

By connecting the withdrawal and transition to a new 'end state' to the strategic objective of destroying al Qaeda, Obama goes down in history and helps America's stock value rise on having shown, finally, that America is truly completing something it told its citizens and the rest of the world it would do.

Anti-Gay Advocates Win: Grenell Resigns From Romney Campaign

richard-grenell-casual.jpgRichard Grenell, recently hired by the Mitt Romney for President campaign to serve as the GOP presidential contender's national security spokesman, has resigned.

His statement:

I have decided to resign from the Romney campaign as the Foreign Policy and National Security Spokesman.

While I welcomed the challenge to confront President Obama's foreign policy failures and weak leadership on the world stage, my ability to speak clearly and forcefully on the issues has been greatly diminished by the hyper-partisan discussion of personal issues that sometimes comes from a presidential campaign.

I want to thank Governor Romney for his belief in me and my abilities and his clear message to me that being openly gay was a non-issue for him and his team.

This is as wrong for the Romney team to do as it was for the Obama team to fire Obama campaign Muslim American outreach director Mazen Asbahi for distant acquaintances from years previous that were stirring up anti-Obama, anti-Islamic agitants in the US. 

Allowing Grenell to resign, and the same is true of Asbahi, just fuels the confidence and status of bigots who undermine big tent, inclusive democracy.

I was just telling Washington Post editor Fred Hiatt this weekend how impressed I was with hyper-conservative Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin's statements on Ric Grenell, the GOP, and the party's anti-gay bigotry.  I have almost never agreed with Rubin on her world view but on this, I salute her and think that she was dead on target.

Her kicker line in the essay was important:

It would be a positive thing for the [Republican] party and our country if it was crystal clear there is no place in civil discourse for those fanning the flames of hatred toward gays and egging on fellow conservatives to discriminate against gays in hiring. Unfortunately, not everyone on the right agrees.

When Steve Clemons and Jennifer Rubin actually agree on something, but the GOP gives in to the rants of American Family Association policy director Bryan Fischer and his ilk -- one gets a sense of how really tumorous and distorted certain powerful wings of the Republican Party have become.

The Republican Party needs to re-center itself, recapture the core values it used to believe in, and bring in the likes of Richard Grenell to create a much healthier party.  That is probably a long way off but it needs to happen not only so conservatives can be taken seriously again but because democracy needs sound alternatives.

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Will Romney Squash GOP Anti-Gay Bigotry?

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Right wing, and anti-gay provocateur Bryan Fischer, Director of Issue Analysis for Government and Public Policy at the American Family Association, wrote in early 2011 that Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee were just carrying too much baggage to win the GOP nomination and run for the presidency in 2012.

So, he said a second tier of candidates would probably break through -- listing "Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, John Thune, John Bolton, Mike Pence, and a possible "dark horse" (his term, not mine), Herman Cain."

Ultimately, Fischer said that in the end it would be a hard choice between Herman Cain and Mike Pence. He never gave a thought to Rick Santorum. And as we now know, Mitt Romney is the presumptive nominee -- though Newt Gingrich hasn't tucked it in yet.

john bolton george bush.jpgAbout John Bolton, Fischer wrote in January 2011:

John Bolton belongs in the next conservative administration, but not as president. He will be needed in the areas of national security and intelligence, and is a pretty smart fella when it comes to all that. But most of the American people have no idea who he is, and nobody knows where he stands on almost the entire range of domestic issues.

Perhaps Fischer just wasn't tuned in when John Bolton made clear in September 2010 that he 'could live with' gay marriage -- and said this on Don't Ask Don't Tell:

"I don't think there is any good answer to the question why shouldn't gays and lesbians who want to serve their country be allowed to do it."

I have significant differences with John Bolton's international affairs views but I give him great credit for not being the kind of bizarre cookie cutter hard right zealot that Bryan Fischer is. Bolton has not only supported the rights agenda of gay and lesbian Americans, he has been a great boss and mentor to a number of gay people -- including the very capable and doggedly results-focused Richard "Ric" Grenell who served Bolton as spokesman during Bolton's tenure as a recess-appointed Ambassador at the United Nations; his long-time aide in many incarnations Mark Groombridge; and others.

Bolton gets my respect for this -- and I have little patience for those who disparage the competency or qualifications of anyone based on any other issue than merit.

ROMNEY-BOLTON-MC CAIN.JPGBryan Fischer's anti-gay bigotry, coughed up of late on Romney for hiring Richard Grenell deserves widespread repudiation and scorn by sensible folks on the right and left. Fischer tweeted yesterday:

Romney picks out & loud gay as a spokesman. If personnel is policy, his message to the pro-family community: drop dead

Fischer didn't say the same about John Bolton who was already quite "out" about his support of gay Americans -- and if Fischer scooted through his roster of Republican possibilities, he'd see that nearly all of them had high level, plugged-in, highly competent gay and lesbian staff.

It's Fischer who is the odd man out in American politics; probably irritated that Mitt Romney punched through Fischer's incorrect political analysis of last year. One hopes that Romney stands strong -- and stand by the competence and capacity of people like Grenell -- and that we spend our time battling each other over issues that really matter to the nation.

There I have many differences with Romney, as well as Obama -- but today, Romney gets a salute from me for hiring Grenell.

Newt Owes Moby a Lot

moby-dick-medium.jpgHuffpost's Paul Blumenthal has an extensive piece out on Newt Gingrich's campaign debt problems. I loved this graf:

The campaign's most absurd unpaid expenses were more than $1 million to the private jet company Moby Dick Airways, nearly $450,000 to a security firm, and more than $500,000 in travel reimbursements and other payments to individual staffers and consultants.

When life imitates absurd movies. . .well, I just love the notion of Newt, Ahab, and Moby Dick.

Can't find much on the airline, but there is a Moby Dick Airways facebook page and a clip or two out there on Newt/Ahab's debts to Moby.

Mitt Romney, Afghanistan, and His Foreign Policy Stock Price

Last night I joined Rachel Maddow to talk about Mitt Romney's evolving views on Afghanistan.  At various times, Romney has said we needed to get out of the Afghanistan mess, agreeing for the most part at the time of early GOP debates with House Representative and then presidential candidate Michele Bachmann until shifting to a harder-line posture on staying in Afghanistan.

Romney, who has endorsed the general time frame of closing down most of the US mission in Afghanistan at the end of 2014 has been critical of Obama's decision to drawdown the committed surge forces and bringing levels to 68,000.  Obama -- acting like a Commander-in-Chief should listened to the advice of 'the generals' and then made a decision based on larger strategic factors and ordered that the surge troops be drawn out.  Romney has implied that Obama should not only 'listen to the generals' but should do what they tell him. 

Romney might want to go back and read testimony given by former ISAF Commander General David Petraeus about Afghanistan before Congress in which Petraeus said that the recommendations he was making were based on factors inside and related to Afghanistan alone -- but were not taking into account the larger "strategic situation."  Petraeus shied away from giving a strategic assessment of the value of Afghanistan in relation to other matters like America's posture with Iran, with the broader Middle East, with stability dynamics in South Asia -- particularly with Pakistan and India. 

Obama and his national security team lead by Tom Donilon and Denis McDonough have committed to a strategic rebalancing of US forces and long-term commitments. They are working to downsize America's vulnerability to the instability and challenges in the Middle East and South Asia which are sapping American resources and power and deploy to where global economic growth is shifting:  Asia. 

If Mitt Romney re-reads his Citadel speech and checks out the Asia sections, he agrees that Asia needs more attention.

The clip of my discussion with Rachel Maddow follows below:

Rachel Maddow talks to Atlantic editor-at-large Steve Clemons about whether John McCain is pushing Mitt Romney into more hawkish, never leave Afghanistan position

While I have largely dismissed the foreign policy competence and coherence of Mitt Romney's strategic vision in the past, I'm seeing Romney up his game in a few hires he has made. 

First of all, the Romney team has brought on board former Department of State Under Secretary for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky to play a lead role on shaping his national security and foreign policy agenda and positions.  Dobriansky, who until recently was a senior executive with ThomsonReuters and once was Vice President and Director of the Washington operations for the Council on Foreign Relations, is a formidable and creative public intellectual.  I'm not sure she wrote the piece, but one could sense a different hand -- probably Paula Dobriansky's by my guess -- behind the interesting Mitt Romney Foreign Policy magazine oped, "Bowing to the Kremlin", in which he challenged Obama's caught-on-mic comments to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on ballistic missile defense.

The essay was tough-minded, internally consistent and coherent, and a real contrast to other Romney foreign policy commentary.

The next big hire that I mentioned to Rachel Maddow last evening was that Ric Grenell, a long time communications expert who served as spokesman for four US Ambassadors to the United Nations, is now Romney's national security spokesman.  Grenell worked for former Senator Jack Danforth at the UN; then John Negroponte; then the affable John Bolton; and finally Zalmay Khalilzad.  During the long battle over John Bolton's Senate confirmation vote which he never received, Grenell was a tireless, tenacious, tough advocate for Bolton with the media.  I was one of those skeptical of John Bolton's UN confirmation, but I give Grenell credit for being fair-minded and serious with me. 

Foreign policy pundits and analysts are now going to have to reconsider Romney on foreign policy and national security and consider his positions more seriously. 

Presidents aren't just people -- they are franchises.  And with Dobriansky and Grenell, Romney has upped the stock value of his foreign policy operation.

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