Is Alternative Energy Set to go Mainstream?

Dec 28 2011, 8:01 PM ET Comment

It might sound like a large number: 600,000 homes in the U.S. are rigged with photovoltaic panels. But 600,000 homes would fill just one fair-sized city. If alternative energy is going to have any real impact on the environment, it'll need to grow larger, much larger . . . just one coal-fired plant could replace all of the solar panels in the U.S. today.

Momentum is in favor of alternative energy: panel prices are at their lowest point and the technology is moving forward. There's also a glut of panels in the America, and a new solar-panel factory about to go online in the U.S. should drive prices down further.

Meanwhile, electrical demand is expected to rise--and the present level of electrical output won't be able to handle the load. In other words, we need to make alternative energy work--and fast.
 
But what about nuclear power plants--can't they take up the slack? After all, powerful forces are behind the construction of new plants and some environmentalists even support their construction. Nuclear plants, however, take years to get approved--and after Japan's Fukushima Daiichi disaster, regulators aren't likely to move any faster.

We could build more coal-fired plants, but they aren't welcome in many neighborhoods, due to health concerns. Coal-fired plants are also running up against onerous regulations because of their carbon emissions. Making it worse for coal plants, the big banks seem to feel more environmental regulations are on the way. The banks are therefore imposing tougher lending standards on new coal-fired plants.

So why aren't more houses and apartment buildings going solar? Some say there should be better publicity about how the prices are down for solar panels--maybe some unlikely person, a Sarah Palin instead of an Al Gore, should back them to get the word out. Cities are also trying to go solar--Woburn, Massachusetts is pursuing a plan to build its own solar farm. Other cities are working on wind power. (But as some people like to point out, wind is just a form of solar energy; it's caused by the heating and cooling of the atmosphere.)

Solar is no longer within the province of hippies and energy wonks. But it has much farther to go. Or as GetRealList says:

Starting around 2012-2014, the world will need to build the equivalent of all the world's existing renewable energy capacity every year just to replace the lost BTUs from oil.

Fortunately renewable energy of all kinds is enjoying a massive growth spurt, attracting trillions of dollars in investment capital. On average, the sector seems to be growing at about 30% per year, which is phenomenal . . . but it's not 100%.  

And that's just it: we're doing well, but we've got a very long way to go.